Do Not Ignore this Alarming S&P 500 Chart -- But Don't Panic!

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Since 2014, investors such as Russ Koesterich, Wilbur Ross, Carl Icahn, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff and many others were ready to bury the current bull market. 

This is a who's who of finance jockeying to be the next Nouriel Roubini, who is famous for predicting economic downturns. But to get the accolade and bragging rights of having called a big crash, you need an actual crash. The only thing that's cracked thus far is egg on the face of premature bears.

Bill Gross is the latest Wall Street celebrity trying to ring the bell at the top. "The bull market supercycle for stocks and bonds is approaching an end," he wrote in his latest Janus investment outlook. Will he be right?

Perhaps more impactful than any analyst's opinion is the S&P 500 chart below.

  1. The red trend line connects numerous pivot points, including the 2007 high. That trend line is currently at 2,124. On April 27, the S&P reversed at 2,125.
  2. There were 1,897 trading days between the March 2000 and October 2007 highs. Projecting another 1,897 days from the October 2007 high brings us to April 27, which is when the S&P reversed at 2,125.

This chart is too potent to be ignored. Here's why: If there is such a thing as a perfect time for a market top, it's now (or last week).

Despite this ominous looking chart, a major market top may not be imminent. Why?

I've analyzed most major market tops and observed that demand for stocks starts to lag several months before the actual market top. This was the case in 1987, 2000 and 2007, but it's not the case today.

This doesn't mean the market can't correct. In fact, a closer look reveals a concerning measure of recent internal deterioration.

For example, although the S&P 500 settled within 0.2% of its all-time closing high on Monday, only 59.8% of New York Stock Exchange stocks above their 50-day simple moving average and 71.7% of NYSE stocks traded above their 50-day simple moving average as recent as April 15.

Fewer stocks are supporting the market's latest rally attempts. This is a sign of weakness, and generally foreshadows a correction. The odds for an upcoming correction are higher than the odds of a major market top.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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