NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The stock indexes closed moved higher on Wednesday, although they closed off of the day's high. Once again, the testimony of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen provided the support that the markets are seeking.
What appears to be of more importance from a risk management standpoint is the lack of volume, especially in the S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) . Wednesday saw another new low-volume day following the new low-volume day on Tuesday.
This will gain more importance once the stock indexes start to sell off. For now, it seems traders and investors are only looking at one thing -- the price of the stock indexes as they continually push to new all-time highs.
Only focusing on price as a leading indicator does not tell the entire story of what is happening underneath the surface in the stock indexes. The biggest difference between professional risk managers and guys using charts is modeling volatility.
The fact of the matter is that all four major stock indexes are at the high end of their respective risk ranges. This phenomenon cannot continue without the stock indexes moving lower to reset themselves.
The stock indexes are in a bull market, but within a bull context the indexes need to move lower to have a better opportunity to then move higher over the intermediate time frame.
According to my internal algorithm process, all four major stock indexes are either extreme overbought or extraordinarily overbought. Under those conditions, it is not a bullish scenario when the stock market volume continues to decline as the price of those indexes continues to move higher.
When the programmed hedge fund machines decide to sell, the volume on the downside will increase and the price movement will have a tendency to be exaggerated to the downside as the hedge fund machines act in unison and the selling feeds upon itself.
Thus, there continue to be many negative divergences are on a daily time frame and caution is warranted. Do not just focus on price movement in a "tunnel." This stock market is very risky at these price levels.