For the week, the DJIA was higher by 1.09%, the S&P 500 gained 2.01%, the Nasdaq gained 3.14% and the Russell 2000 was higher by 1.46%.
The DJIA closed up nearly 47 points to 18,019, the S&P was up nearly 9 points to 2,097 and the Nasdaq was up over 36 points to 4,894. The Russell rose nearly 7 points to 1,223.
Is the low volume a cause for concern? Traders and investors alike should at least acknowledge that we may be seeing a false breakout to new all-time highs. Only time will tell if we see confirmation.
In the meantime, there are multiple indicators on multiple duration time frames that suggest traders and investors should be cautious in chasing this market higher.
For those who have a risk management process that consists of more than chasing price momentum, being able to model volatility that leads to an intermediate-term risk range for indexes and stocks, the stock indexes and many stocks are near the high end of that risk range. Sell the high end of the risk range and buy the low end of that range. Then repeat the process.
It appears that the stock market, which has been in overbought territory for 33 consecutive months, is now extraordinarily overbought on a quarterly basis, and is setting itself up for some bad things to come within the year.
Momentum chasing works until it doesn't. When the stock market begins to change trend and signals a downward move, will you be prepared?