- The heavier the Super Bowl advertising by a company/industry, the more likely its stock or sector will underperform.
- My Super Bowl Indicator indicates that it is time to buy auto stocks and to short technology.
On Sunday, one of the grand sporting events of the year will take place: Super Bowl XLIX.
Back in January 2000, I created a brand new stock market Super Bowl indicator as a contrary indicator, very similar to the cover of Time.
My indicator dictates that the more intense the Super Bowl TV advertising by a group of companies, particularly in a specific industry, the more likely the stocks of those companies will perform poorly in the year ahead.
Barron's' Alan Abelson was kind enough to include and highlight my indicator in his "Up and Down Wall Street" during the weekend of the 2000 Super Bowl.
As the late Sir Alan wrote:
As it happens, last week's tech wreck was accurately forecast by a remarkable new stock-market indicator, one we're proud to print for the first time anywhere, the Stock Market Super Bowl Indicator.
Before you start yapping about it being old hat -- or old helmet -- we respectfully suggest you cool it. Pure and simple, our new indicator has nothing to do with the old Super Bowl indicator. Unlike the latter, its predictive power doesn't depend on the outcome of the Super Bowl or, more specifically, whether the winner represents the National Football League's American Conference or the National Conference.