BOSTON (TheStreet) -- Fiftteen biotech predictions for 2015:
1. Gilead Sciences (GILD) will buy Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) . Or Juno Therapeutics (JUNO) . Maybe Kite Pharma (KITE) . Okay, I'm not sure exactly which company Gilead will buy, but the acquisition focus will be oncology and it will be transformative, just as Pharmasset was for its hepatitis C business.
I'm sad about getting this one wrong.
5. FDA rejects MannKind's inhaled, rapid acting insulin Afrezza for the third time.Nope, but MannKind shares are down almost 50% since Afrezza's approval. Investors are smarter than the FDA.
6. BioMarin Pharmaceuticals (BMRN) will not be acquired. (Thereby guaranteeing BioMarin will be acquired.)
My M&A predictions never pan out.
7. A Baker Brothers exchange-traded fund is launched.
It dawned on most savvy investors that blind idolatry of certain biotech hedge funds isn't a viable investment strategy.
8. Tony Coles becomes CEO of Merck (MRK) .
I'm glad I got this one wrong because Coles' new startup is based in Cambridge, Mass., so we get to hang out more.
9. Cellular therapy developer Neostem (NBS) blows up on negative cardiac clinical trial data but CEO Robin Smith restructures company by opening a nationwide chain of stem-cell smoothie shops.
NeoStem kaboom. Called it.
10. Amgen (AMGN) will outperform the other big-cap biotech stocks, although all will finish the year higher than where they started.
I thought this was a contrarian call when I made it last January. Amgen was the most un-toppy, top large-cap performer I can remember in a long time. Turned out to be right.
11. Gilead Sciences will break out early on a strong launch of its hepatitis C pill Sovaldi but the stock finishes 2014 flattish -- a single-digit gain.
12. Weak, disappointing drug launches for Vanda Pharma and Keryx Pharma.
Incomplete. See above.
13. Avik Roy bashes Obamacare. (I have to make sure I get at least one of these damn predictions right.
Wrong. Scott Gottlieb was the correct call.
14. Twitter traders maintain their track record of never losing money on a biotech stock.
Remember when someone cared about bavituximab? Neither can I.
Perfect. Zero. But if I roll this prediction over for a few weeks, I might get one or two right.
Procysbi wasn't necessarily abandoned but Raptor had a bad year. The bear thesis was a winner.
I am a biotech stock-predicting god.
19. A coalition of private insurers and pharmacy benefits managers form a Super PAC to lobby Congress to consider implementation of European-style drug price controls.
Not quite, but damn close.
20. Gene therapy developer Sangamo BioSciences (SGMO) issues press release No. 689 claiming to cure HIV but, still, no one believes them. Bluebird's gene therapy program, however, proves to be the real deal.
21. Forbes' Matt Herper conducts another live interview with billionaire health care executive Patrick Soon-Shiong about his new health care tech venture NantWorks, but the audience still doesn't understand what the hell Soon-Shiong's company is supposed to be doing.
Half right. Herper wrote a Forbes' cover story about Soon-Shiong but we still don't know what, exactly, Soon-Shiong is doing. (No fault of Herper's, by the way.)
22. Cell Therapeutics' (CTIC) Jim Bianco wins Best Biotech CEO of 2014 (This is my black swan prediction.)
There's always 2015, Jim.