With a supply deficit expected to send prices rising, 2015 looks set to be a good year for the aluminum industry. Already in 2014 premiums have more than doubled in the US, largely due to rising demand from the auto industry. "The world, excluding China, will continue to be in short supply due to shut downs, production curtailments and strong demand in South America and North America," one aluminum market participant told Reuters in a survey. Other respondents told the news outlet that they expect premiums to hit record highs in 2015′s second quarter. Australia's Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) has predicted that the world, excluding China, will record a deficit of 1.75 million tonnes of aluminum in 2015 overall. Production may rise in 2015 Aluminum production has been falling outside of China since 2012, Reuters states in another article, having declined by 1.61 million tonnes over that period of time. The reason is that the start of 2012 saw very low aluminum prices, which led producers to cut their output considerably. As of now, production of the metal is still falling in South America — this trend is largely the result of conditions in Brazil, where high power prices and low aluminum prices make production much less cost effective than it is elsewhere. Production is also still contracting in North America due to situational factors. There are reasons beyond the aluminum price for that — for example, a smelter in Indiana lost a line in a fire in October, and a Canadian smelter has been producing less as it works to implement new technology for the year to come. Overall, however, Reuters is of the opinion that there is no reason for production to fall further in the year ahead. Instead, a steep rise may occur in 2015 as companies look to restart smelters that have been closed since 2012. One of those is the Dutch Aldel smelter, owned by the Klesch Group. The smelter closed early in the year and applied for bankruptcy, but plans to restart early next year with a yearly capacity of 100,000 tonnes.