NEW YORK (Real Money) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
This past week, Kass published a runner-up list of predictions for 2015 ahead of his official "15 Surprises for 2015" list, due this week. Atop the also-ran list, Kass sees China growth sinking below 5% in the New Year.
Originally published on Dec. 26, 2015 at 7:32 a.m. EST
10 Also-Ran Surprises for 2015
- On Monday I will deliver my 15 Surprises for 2015. I think it is my most interesting list in years.
Here are my 10 also-ran Surprises for 2015 that I had considered but didn't make the top 15.
- China's real GDP growth falls below 5% in 2015 as economic growth decelerates markedly in the second half of the year.
- An accounting "discrepancy" is found at Alibaba (BABA) . The shares plummet and the hedge fund community feels the pain.
- Under pressure from suppliers and a falling stock price, Ron Johnson is installed as CEO of Sears Holdings (SHLD) .
- George Soros makes $2.5 billion by shorting German Bunds.
- The price of crude oil drops below $40 a barrel in the second half of 2015.
- The consumer price index turns negative (year over year).
- IBM (IBM) whiffs and the share price drops below $125 a share. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) suffers a near-$4 billion loss (on paper). At Buffett's suggestion, senior management is replaced.
- Warren Buffett announces his successor.
- Uber goes public at a $50 billion capitalization. The share price never exceeds the IPO price in 2015.
- Monitise's (MONIF) subscription adds far outpace expectations this year. (The shares double in price.)
- This is a conservative holding.
I am back buying Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) based on the following considerations:
* The price of crude may be bottoming -- NWBI is positioned in Western Pennsylvania's shale country.
* The stock has lagged the regional and money center bank groups.
* I continue to admire the holding company's capital strategy of returning capital (regular and special dividends) to shareholders.
* A reasonable yield (above) and an active repurchase program.
This is a conservative holding, and my objective is for a 10%+ return over the next 12 months. The bank is a potential takeover candidate and its private market value is likely in the $16 to $17 per share area.
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