NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The major equity averages will begin 2015 with upside potential of 9.5% to 10% for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.

If this upside doesn't occur in the first quarter, the odds of having a positive year for U.S. stocks are a flip of the coin.

The backdrop for this vision in today's crystal ball is just how patient the Federal Reserve will be in beginning a normalization of monetary policy.

The consensus is that its Federal Open Market Committee will begin with its April 28-29 meeting or its June 16-17 meeting. The latter is followed by a press conference by Fed Chief Janet Yellen.

At some point, continuing to wait for normalization for a "considerable time" will mean that more companies are having difficulty in keeping their earnings momentum intact. This sets up the downside risk for the major equity averages.

Assuming that 2014 closes are little changed from Monday's closes, the major averages will see downside between 18% and 25% at some point next year.

U.S. Treasury yields will remain stubbornly low as the coupon curve continues to flatten.

The yield on the two-year will rise in anticipation of eventually normalization of Fed policy and as longer-term yields stay low.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year could trade as low as 1.75%, given that the German 10-year is at 0.60% and the Japanese 10-year is at 0.35%.

The U.S. 30-year bond yield should be range-bound between 3.25% and 2.50%.

Comex Gold is projected to bottom from as low as $900 the Troy ounce and will rebound to $1,350 in the first half next year. Investors are better off buying gold mining shares such as Barrick Gold (ABX) , Goldcorp (GG) , Newmont Mining (NEM) and Yamana Gold (AUY) .

Nymex Crude Oil has been below its 200-week simple moving average since Aug. 22 and should stay below this moving average, now at $95.34, for all of next year. The downside is to the January 2009 low at $33.20.

Investors interested in energy stocks should buy Dow industrials components Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) on weakness.

The euro vs. dollar should stay below its 200-week simple moving average, now at 1.3331. The downside for the euro next year is parity.

Here are the updated trading profiles for the exchange-traded funds related to the major equity averages:

SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Avg ETF ($179.36) is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $173.34 and $168.65, respectively. The key weekly moving average has risen to $176.01, with a projected monthly technical level at $179.29 and a projected semiannual technical level at $183.33. The downside is to a projected annual technical level at $145.86, with upside to a projected quarterly technical level at $196.37.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF ($207.47) is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $201.30 and $195.21, respectively. The key weekly moving average has risen to $204.27, with a projected semiannual technical level at $205.75 and a projected monthly technical level at $212.36. The downside is to a projected annual technical level at $156.43, with upside to a projected quarterly technical level at $227.47.

PowerShares QQQ Trust ETF ($104.58) is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at $101.37 and $95.19, respectively. The key weekly moving average has risen to $103.13, with a projected semiannual technical level at $102.09. The downside is to a projected annual technical level at $90.01, with upside to a projected quarterly technical level at $111.89.

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This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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