"Assuming about 50K-to-100K of combined incremental capacity at Samsung's Line 17 Phase 1, Micron (lnotera/Rexchip), and SK Hynix, we expect industry DRAM wafer output to remain unchanged or decrease slightly in 2015, given tech migrations to 2Xnm and beyond result in 10% to 15% wafer output loss," Jefferies analysts said.
"We believe Samsung is preparing to add 14nm foundry capacity at S2 and S3 (Line 17 Phase 2) as needed to fulfill customer demand. We expect Micron's DRAM margins to remain biased upward in 2015," they added.
Separately, Nomura analysts said they "revise up 2015F DRAM market size by 17% plus year-over-year to $49.6 billion and 2015F NAND market size by 8.6% plus to $31.5 billion."
"We expect DRAM supply to remain tight, as bit growth of 25% will likely be in line with end demand. In addition, we are raising our Micron DRAM and NAND estimates on higher bit growth as strong mobile DRAM and server drive 20% to 25% demand bit growth," they noted.
"We are raising our CY15 DRAM estimate to $13 billion from $12.6 billion. Our MU DRAM growth estimate of 14% plus remains conservative relative to industry 17% plus year-over-year DRAM revenue growth due to lower bit production," they added.