Big Drop in Oil Prices Won't Kill the Stock Market Rally

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Crude oil slid once again on Friday, making fresh five-year lows as the commodity plunged 4% to $57.34 per barrel. But despite the drop in oil prices it won't kill the stock market rally, Josh Brown, CEO and co-founder of Ritholtz Wealth Management, asserted during CNBC's "Fast Money Halftime" trading show. 

Commodity selloffs haven't been rare during this multi-year bull market, he added. Consider that wheat and coffee declined 40% from the start of 2012, while gold and copper slid 40% from the start of 2011. 

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The oil selloff could have a negative impact on the market for a few days but won't have a lasting effect, said Jon Najarian, co-founder of and The S&P 500 is 3% off its all-time high, while oil is down 45% from its highs made this summer, he added, reasoning that stocks can continue higher despite the fall. 

This is a "stealth stimulus" for oil-importing nations, he added, such as India, Japan, China and Europe. 

While the stock market's seven-week winning streak will come to an end, there are some buying opportunities, according to Pete Najarian, co-founder of and Look at Costco Wholesale (COST) for example, which should benefit from increased consumer spending

The bear case for oil is that global economies are in a deflationary environment and demand for crude is falling. But that's not the situation, says Jim Lebenthal, CFO and CIO of Lebenthal Asset Management. 

The U.S. economy is going "gangbusters" and China and Japan will be huge beneficiaries of lower oil prices because they are such large importers, he added. On the flip side, Russian equities will be hurt. 

How low can oil go? "It's hard to tell," said Charif Souki, co-founder and CEO of Cheniere Energy (LNG) . So far, production hasn't been stopped, which means oil can continue lower from here. Lower crude prices shrinks the cost benefit of its customers' decision to use liquified natural gas but it's only for the short term. In the long run, customers know LNG is a cheaper alliterative than crude. 

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Cheniere uses a long-term approach that spans several decades in which management uses contracts to lock in pricing. Furthermore, 80% to 85% of the company's revenue aren't affected by fluctuating oil prices, Souki explained. 

Poor investor sentiment has weighed on Cheniere Energy shares, Brown said. Fundamentally, the company is very strong and these types of selloffs are buying opportunities.  

Tony Dwyer, chief equity strategist at Canaccord Genuity, said he has kept his earnings estimates on companies low despite his Street-high 2015 target of 2,340 for the S&P. When oil prices collapse as they have this year, it generally leads to multiple expansion for stocks, he said. Also, pension fund managers have almost nowhere to go but U.S. stocks, considering how poorly international stocks and commodities have performed and how low yields are in fixed-income. The U.S. economy is growing, inflation is low and earnings are at record highs, he concluded. 

The conversation shifted to GoPro (GPRO) , which faces a large lockup expiration on Dec. 23. 

Pete Najarian, who is long the stock from $72, argued the company's holiday sales will be very strong when it reports earnings. The strong demand and new products will drive margins higher as well. The company is making a push into China and will begin monetizing its media content in 2015. 

Holiday sales will be strong, Lebenthal acknowledged, but at 50 times 2016 earnings estimates the stock is expensive and the company needs to have a competitive moat. While GoPro is the go-to name in the wearable cameras space right now, nothing would stop a company like Apple (AAPL) from dominating the segment in the not-too-distant future. 

For their final trades, Pete Najarian is buying Under Armour (UA) and Jon Najarian is selling International Business Machine (IBM) . Lebenthal said to buy Trimble Navigation (TRMB) and Brown is a buyer of the WisdomTree India Earnings ETF (EPI) .

Must Read: 3 Oil Companies That Are Likely Takeover Targets as Prices Plunge

-- Written by Bret Kenwell 

Follow @BretKenwell

This article is commentary by an independent contributor. At the time of publication, the author held TK positions in the stocks mentioned.

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