Potash Outlook 2015: Watch Oil Price For Near-term Clues
Potash Investing News examines 2014 and sees what 2015 has in store for those operating in the potash market. Overall, Spencer Churchill, an analyst with Paradigm Capital, envisions supply and demand staying relatively steady into next year.
Despite an early drop to $287 per ton from the January level of $320, potash prices have stayed relatively calm this year, fueling interest in next year's outlook. Here Potash Investing News takes a look at what investors and analysts have seen this past year and what's in store for the future. 2014 in review: weak capital markets, but not as bad as 2013 Niall Murphy with Potash Ridge (TSX: PRK) said the market has been somewhat depressed for muriate of potash (MOP) versus sulfate of potash (SOP), and in turn that has affected companies across the potash market. "The impact of weak capital markets for resources was compounded somewhat by the depressed market for MOP, which we believe impacted our perception in the marketplace as a potash development company. As a result, one of our primary goals for 2014 was to aggressively educate the market on the merits of SOP as a more favorable product than MOP, given its premium quality and the fundamental supply deficit in SOP markets today," he wrote in a statement. Murphy said the lack of capital for companies to take advantage of, as well as the cautious state of the Canadian marketplace and investors, has proven challenging for resource companies. Even so, it's been a far quieter year than 2013, which saw the Russian potash trading cartel blown up by Uralkali (MCX: URKA). Uralkali also made the news recently following sinkhole and flooding issues at its Russian mine, prompting speculation that potash prices could rise. "The big drop in grain prices was a bit of a shock — but luckily fertilizer pricing had come down sufficiently in advance so that the volume impact wasn't material; the recent flooding of Uralkali's mine was a curveball the market has yet to fully understand," said Spencer Churchill, an analyst with Paradigm Capital.