Stick With Retail; Does Obama Ever Consider Jobs?: Jim Cramer's Best Blogs

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Jim Cramer fills his blog on RealMoney every day with his up-to-the-minute reactions to what's happening in the market and his legendary ahead-of-the-crowd ideas. This week he blogged on:

  • Retail stocks, which might be getting their groove back, and
  • The economic impact of Obama's statements.

Click here for information on RealMoney, where you can see all the blogs, including Jim Cramer's -- and reader comments -- in real time.

Stick With Retail

Posted at 11:39 a.m. EDT on Friday., Nov. 14, 2014

Don't abandon retail stocks. They just might be getting their groove back.

This morning, two terrific retailers -- Ross Stores  (ROST)  and TJX  (TJX)  -- caught downgrades because of valuation. Specifically, the research firm Canaccord took these two stocks to Sell ratings because the expectations are said to be too high and shareholders could be disappointed when the numbers come out.

I say: Hold your horses.

First of all, the climate has become just about perfect for retail, and I'm just referring to the chill in the air. I mean that, with consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan and Reuters through the roof -- clocking at an astounding 89 -- you don't want to cut back on any retail holdings you have. Consumer sentiment, which I thought would be dealt a bad blow because of Ebola fears, has turned out to be extremely robust. I believe this is because of the shocking decline in gasoline prices.

I think that this gasoline story is still viewed as an abstraction by many people on Wall Street, and that's just plainly a mistake. I bet these analysts have no idea how much more shopping can be done now that there is spare change in the pockets of people who spend a great deal of their income pumping gasoline. I bet these same analysts would be pushing Ross Stores and TJX if we got a tax cut of similar magnitude.

About these two names specifically? Sure, the stocks are trading above their historical norms, but so are many others. More important, they really haven't done anything this year. Ross is up 8% year to date, and TJX is down 2%. These are hardly the kinds of stocks that have run away to the upside and should be trimmed back. Both companies are excellent retailers with a tremendous amount of runway to them.

All week we have been pleasantly surprised by retail. Consider that both Macy's  (M)  and Nordstrom  (JWN)  cut forecasts, but buyers flocked to them anyway, in part because of management commentary and how well they are set up for the holiday season. Macy's took care to mention that the gas-pump price figured importantly in the strong quarter that was just announced. Last night on Mad Money Cheryl Bachelder, the CEO of Popeye's Louisiana Kitchen  (PLKI) , cited lower gasoline prices as one of the chief reasons the company was able to do 7% comparable-store-sales growth.

I think Wal-Mart  (WMT)  also got a huge tailwind from the gasoline decline -- and, judging by prices, it is only going to get better. Wal-Mart is a lot better than it used to be because of some important changes to its line-up, including better stocking and more natural and organic food. But, to me, the big positive here is that money that would have been spent at the pump is now being spent at the register.

Look, I totally understand analysts being nervous about the group. Over at Action Alerts PLUS, we took a profit in Macy's for fear the company would cut its forecast -- and that's exactly what it did. But I think the analysts made a judgment that declining gasoline prices were a positive ahead of the holiday season, and decided to stick with it anyway.

I say: Let these stocks run. They were tremendous growth vehicles for years, and then for the longest time only shares of Costco  (COST)  and Home Depot  (HD)  seemed to be going higher. Because of gasoline, everyone is now joining the party. There will come a time when retail will be too crowded a trade. But right now it's just beginning, and I think you should stick around for the gains.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the securities mentioned.

Does Obama Ever Consider Jobs?

Posted at 1:33 p.m. EDT on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2014

Does the president EVER consider the economic impact of his statements? Ever?

The other day he threw a whole industry off guard, the telco industry, with his impromptu rant on net neutrality. The big service provider carriers are regulated by the FCC and try to spend in line with what the FCC wants. The FCC knows they have to have some financial incentives or they won't build out their broadband networks. You don't build them out to lose money.

But as Cisco  (CSCO)  CEO John Chambers said on his call last night, now that the president has weighed in on the matter, two or three of the service providers are simply pausing in their spending and, believe me, their spend puts tens of thousands of people to work.

Did the president even weigh that employment issue?

Or how about the Keystone pipeline. You may hate the pollution that's going to come from that dirty oil, even as we now have the chemicals to make it clean, but the fact is that oil will be used by us and burned cleanly or be used by the Chinese and burned horribly, with the pollution arriving on schedule in Los Angeles about five days later.

We all know this.

But what's galling about the upcoming vote for Keystone is that the president never comes out and says, "You know what? We are doing a cost-benefit analysis of the jobs created vs. the potential environmental destruction if done right and we will act on the answer." Does it get considered? When I ask Labor Secretary Tom Perez about these issues I usually get an answer that has NOTHING to do with the question. Just a script. Like an actor. Painful.

Just like as Matt Horween, my writing colleague, reminds me, the president railed against Vegas junkets when he first came in office. Like it or not, Vegas is a huge job creator. Unless you put a damper on it, as he did.

When I was in college I did my senior thesis on the economic impact of what an   environmental impact statement could mean. In other words, when single interest groups, in this case the environmentalists, used federal environmental policies enacted under Nixon, they were able to hold up projects that had never been able to be put on hold before. I tried to measure the hours lost, the jobs lost and the economic downside to see if it was being adequately represented in the process. It wasn't. Lots of jobs had been lost and others never created because of the power of that law in the hand of environmentalists. I was hoping that wasn't the case because I would like to consider myself an environmentalist.

I think the president is a single-issue person who doesn't take into account the jobs created or lost. For those on his side it must feel real good.

But for those without a job, it just must feel rotten.

At the time of publication, Action Alerts PLUS, which Cramer co-manages as a charitable trust, had no positions in the securities mentioned.

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