NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- This Tuesday, the wave of Democrats who swept into the U.S. Senate in 2008 face reelection, and Republicans are poised to pounce. A handful of important battleground states are set to flip red after going blue six years ago. If enough states change, control of the Senate will revert to the Republicans after six years of rule by the Democrats.
With only a day left until the vote, Republicans have a 74% chance of retaking the Senate, according to politics Web site fivethirtyeight.com, run by analyst Nate Silver. Fivethirtyeight.com and Silver gained fame in 2008 and again in 2012 when he predicted the outcome of the U.S. Presidential elections more accurately than any other polling or analysis outfit.
According to Silver, the most likely outcome is that the Republicans end up with 53 seats to the Democrats' 47 seats. Silver gives this result a 21.8% chance of occurring. Currently, the Democrats control 53 seats, the Republicans have 45 and there are two senators who are independent.
As election day approaches, here are the 10 races to watch, ranked from least competitive to most competitive, according to fivethirtyeight.com.
Kentucky: Mitch McConnell (R, incumbent) leads Alison Lundergan Grimes (D)
Fivethirtyeight.com gives McConnell an 88% chance of winning.
Arkansas: Tom Cotton (R) leads Mark Pryor (D, incumbent)
Fivethirtyeight.com gives Cotton a 95% chance of winning.
New Hampshire: Jeanne Shaheen (D, incumbent) leads Scott Brown (R)
Fivethirtyeight.com gives Shaheen an 82% chance of winning.
Alaska: Dan Sullivan (R) has a slight lead on Mark Begich (D, incumbent)
Fivethirtyeight.com gives Sullivan a 72% chance of winning.
North Carolina: Kay Hagan (D, incumbent) leads Thom Tillis (R)
Fivethirtyeight.com gives Kay Hagan a 71% chance of winning.