NEW YORK ( MainStreet) -- Thursday's Scottish vote will determine the future of not only Scotland, but also of the United Kingdom and European Union. By extension, the vote's repercussions could reach markets and American investors. Recent polls show a tight race mired in uncertainty and competing claims, and we spoke with global macro strategist Andrew Busch to understand how this will affect those of us stateside.
Busch believes that no matter the vote's result, unanswered questions about the future of Great Britain and Scotland will remain, posing a threat to equity markets. This will have knock-on effects in U.S. equity markets, too, since many American corporations do business in the region and instability in the United Kingdom can raise broader concerns about the global economic recovery.
"No matter what happens Thursday, the markets are likely to sell off," he said. "But a 'yes' vote would be worse, because it is not priced in by the market, and equities might see real volatility. Recent weakness in the market may be amplified."
A "yes" vote could be the worst-case scenario, leading to big sell-offs and drops in equities -- especially those with significant exposure to the U.K. and Europe. But American investors are likely to see their 401(k)s impacted to some degree, no matter the result said Busch, because even a "no" vote would leave many unanswered questions.
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