By Andrew Steinman What does a 38-year-old NFL quarterback have in common with an electric car company? Two words: high expectations. I believe Denver Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning is the fantasy football equivalent of Tesla (TSLA) in the stock market.
Broncos QB Peyton Manning
As a big enthusiast of fantasy football, I've noticed some interesting parallels with successful investing. For example, fantasy football is not about finding the "best" player, just like investing is not about finding the "best" company. Investing is about finding the best company relative to expectations. Great opportunity comes from the gap between future probabilities and expectations. I believe the same principle applies to fantasy football.
Why Peyton Manning looks "overvalued"
No doubt, Peyton Manning is one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. The question is whether you should pay his expensive price tag to add him to your fantasy football roster. According to ESPN’s auction values, fantasy football owners are paying an average of $55 for Manning. In investing parlance, that means the Denver QB has a relatively high valuation — he's not cheap. That $55 ties Manning for the highest value ever for a quarterback and is a full $12 more than the next quarterback this season. This may not come as a surprise since Manning passed for a record-setting 55 touchdowns and 5,477 yards last season. And he did have a very strong season opener against the Colts with 3 touchdown passes and nearly 270 passing yards. However, I believe Manning's numbers will cool this year, for three main reasons.1. History Below is chart of the nine times a quarterback has exceeded 40 touchdowns in a season.