Why the Jobs Report Didn't Just Happen

NEW YORK ( TheStreet) -- August's jobs headline is so terrible that it's hard to believe. The good news is, there's a whole list of reasons not to believe it.

The government says employers created 142,000 new jobs last month, down from 212,000 in July. August's numbers were way below the 204,000 that payroll processor ADP ( ADP) says private companies added in August and far below the 225,000 that economists had predicted.

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The unemployment rate fell to 6.1% from 6.2%, hourly wages rose 6 cents to $24.53, and the sum of people who are unemployed, involuntarily working part time and people who are "marginally attached" to the job market dropped.

If you believe the report, car sales hit a post-recession high in August, while both manufacturing and services indexes hit recent peaks, and yet employers hit the brakes.

It's not consistent with anything we've seen in other data, and not consistent with job growth that has been above 200,000 every month since February, and those are clear signs it will be revised upward when the government reports next month.  

Some of the big differences between the Labor Department's numbers and ADP's point to the problem.

The government says manufacturing employment was unchanged in August, while ADP found 23,000 new jobs. The government blamed seasonal-adjustment factors related to usual summer layoffs in July at automakers such as General Motors (GM) , which were smaller than usual this year. Given the indexes, not to mention the government's finding that manufacturers added 28,000 jobs in July, bet on a revision.

The government says retailers actually shed 8,000 jobs, thanks partly to a strike at a New England grocery chain that drove a 17,000 job loss at food and beverage stores. ADP doesn't break out retailers. But that loss, if it ever happened, will quickly reverse -- people haven't stopped eating.

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