Editor's Note: This article was originally published at 8:00 a.m. EDT on Real Money on Aug. 22. Sign up for a free trial of Real Money.
In 2005, Goldman Sachs oil analyst Arjun Murti wrote of an oil super spike, with prices reaching $200 a barrel. Murti was prophetic with that call, as oil topped $147 a barrel in 2008 and would likely have made his predicted $200 target had the general economy not suffered an historic meltdown.
Now I am seeing another opportunity for $200 oil, even though the current oil market looks more ready to drop to $75 first. It might do that, but then I can see the coming of the next major oil spike -- and I'm also looking for at least a $150 target.
What inspired the first super spike in 2008 was fundamental -- the new appetite for energy from the emerging markets of China and India -- but moreover financial, with the new drive for investment in oil, a phenomenon I outlined in my book "Oil's Endless Bid."
What will inspire this next one is somewhat different. Let's take 2007. EM countries did create a rapidly-increasing demand for oil barrels. But what we also, even more significantly, had was a rapidly expanding demand for financial oil barrels for investment that I posited entirely outraced the fundamentals.
Today, we have global energy demand that similarly continues to increase, but it is accompanied by a global risk of supply disruption greater than any I have ever seen in 25 years and an almost certain lack of production growth in the future.