Nasdaq's Extreme, Overbought Signal Means It Will Go Lower Next Week

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The stock indexes had a mixed day on Friday to end the week. The DJIA lost 38.27 points to close at 17001.22 while the S&P 500 was down 3.97 at 1988.40. The Nasdaq finished higher by 6.45 to close at 4538.55 and the Russell 2000 was up fractionally at 1160.34.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's keynote speech at Jackson Hole, Wy., turned out to be a non-event.

And the reason I know this is because the S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY) volume was, once again, pathetic. The SPY traded just north of 76 million shares. This is the fifth consecutive day of trading volume less than 80 million shares.

I will continue to make this a point of interest in my articles. The next down day will see huge downside volume. Remember, up days the volume decelerates and on down days the volume accelerates.

All four major indexes are deep into overbought territory. The selling in the DJIA and the S&P 500 on Friday did little to alleviate their overbought condition. The Russell 2000 index was the first index to start the rollover from its extreme overbought condition, but the last two "green" trading days has brought it back into overbought territory.

The Nasdaq is the index that the hedge funds found a need to keep green on Friday. The Nasdaq has an extreme overbought signal, with a closing algo number of 99.55 out of 100. For you traders out there, these are the types of signals that allow me to raise cash or start to short the Nasdaq index. This is the process that we use at www.strategicstocktrade.com.

This allows us to have asymmetric information, a situation in which it appears that we have more or superior information compared to others.

Next week should prove to be an exciting week if traders are expecting to see a downside move in the markets. All four major indexes cannot stay in overbought territory for an sustained length of time. It is just not possible.

On both my small-cap and large-cap scans of oversold stock there is a grand total of two stocks that fit my algorithm criteria. One of the stocks is a gold stock.

So if you think this market is going to continue higher, I would certainly think twice about that. This is a perfect time to lock in profits if you are on the long side.

On Friday, I added to my Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA) long and started a new position in Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) . GDX has an oversold number. I also added to my Brinker Intl. (EAT) short with a 99.98 extraordinarily overbought number.

 

At the time of publication the author was long TZA and GDX and short EAT.

This article is commentary by an independent contributor, separate from TheStreet's regular news coverage.

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