RAIL: Insiders vs. Shorts

The most recent short interest data was recently released by the NASDAQ for the 07/31/2014 settlement date, and FreightCar America Inc (RAIL) is one of the most shorted stocks of the Russell 3000, based on 12.87 "days to cover" versus the median component at 6.30. There are a number of ways to look at short data, but one metric that we find particularly useful is the "days to cover" because it considers both the total shares short and the average daily volume of shares typically traded. The number of shares short is then divided by the average daily volume, to express the total number of trading days it would take to close out all of the open short positions if every share traded represented a short position being closed.

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In the case of FreightCar America Inc ( RAIL), the total short interest at the 07/31/2014 settlement date was 623,608 shares, which compares to the average daily trading volume of just 48,454 shares, for a "days to cover" ratio of 12.87.

When short sellers eventually cover their positions, by definition there must be buying activity because a share that is currently sold short must be purchased to be covered. At the present levels of short interest, if from this point forward every single RAIL share traded represented a short position being closed, then at the average daily volume of 48,454 shares it would only be during the 13th trading day that every short position would be closed.

So it would stand to reason that should some unexpectedly good news come out, and short sellers did not have 13 days of patience but instead wanted to cover their short positions very suddenly, that situation could result in sending the stock higher until the higher price produces enough sellers to generate the necessary volume to close out those positions quickly.

FreightCar America Inc ( RAIL) has something relatively rare for a stock with this much short interest, that being insiders taking the other side of the trade. Looking back over the trailing six month period, RAIL has seen 2 different instances of insider buying, as summarized by the table below:

Purchased Insider Title Shares Price/Share Value
02/21/2014 Charles F. Avery Jr. VP Finance, CFO and Treasurer 1,510 $22.75 $34,352.50
05/07/2014 Charles F. Avery Jr. VP Finance, CFO and Treasurer 500 $23.30 $11,648.00
05/21/2014 Andrew B. Schmitt Director 10,000 $24.95 $249,474.99

Below is a chart showing the "days to cover" for RAIL over time:

Loading+chart++2014+TickerTech.com

And looking at the chart below, RAIL's low point in its 52 week range is $17.53 per share, with $27.799 as the 52 week high point — that compares with a last trade of $26.98.

FreightCar America Inc Moving Averages Chart

In recent trading, shares of FreightCar America Inc ( RAIL) were changing hands at $26.98/share.

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