NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Each month I provide updated "crunching the numbers" tables for the 19 components of the PHLX Housing Sector Index after the release of the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index and the release of housing starts. The housing sector index is down just 0.9% year to date.
The 11 homebuilders in the housing index declined after weaker than expected housing data in June trading and the housing index set its 2014 low on July 31. Better than expected data reported this week helped homebuilder shares recover.
Better performances come from three companies that provide products and services to the housing market. Home improvement and building products company Masco (MAS - Get Report) is up 13% since July 24. The provider of private mortgage insurance Radian Group (RDN - Get Report) is up 7.7%. Timber and forest products company Weyerhaeuser (WY - Get Report) has a gain of 6.4%.
Here are the bullish data releases for housing:
On Monday, the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index rose two points to 55 in August.
On Tuesday, the U.S. Deportment of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau reported housing starts rose 16% in July to a seasonally-adjusted 1.093 million units. The important component for homebuilders is single-family housing starts, which popped 8.3% in July to 656,000 units.
The above graph presents the NAHB Housing Market Index and single-family home starts. Even after this good data I still view the market for new homes stalled at 60% of potential.
At 55, the HMI is above the neutral 50 but below 60 on a scale of 00 to 100.
Single-family starts plunged 9% in June to 575,000 units which as shown above. The 656,000 for July is not shown because HMI was released on Monday and housing starts were reported on Tuesday. Single-family starts have been bobbing back and forth around 600,000 for about a year now, below the normal 1 million to 1.2 million annual rate of production.
Here are the profiles, the "crunching the numbers" tables following:
Beazer Homes (BZH - Get Report) ($18.70) is not a component of the housing sector index. This homebuilder has been below its 200-day simple moving average at $20.33 since July 7 and traded as low as $15.27 on July 31. The stock has been on the rise after reporting better-than-expected earnings on July 31.
DR Horton (DHI - Get Report) ($21.89) has been below its 200-day SMA at $22.05 since July 25 and traded as low as $19.99 on August 7. The catalyst for the decline was an earnings miss reported on July 24. The stock tested its 200-day SMA on Wednesday.
Hovnanian (HOV - Get Report) ($4.32) is scheduled to report quarterly results on Sept. 8 and analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of 7 cents. The stock traded as low as $3.75 on August 5.
KB Home (KBH - Get Report) ($17.80) broke below its 200-day SMA at $17.43 on July 25 and traded as low as $16.06 on August 7. The stock is back above its 200-day SMA trading as high as $17.90 on Wednesday.
Lennar (LEN - Get Report) ($39.00) broke below its 200-day SMA at $38.85 on July 25 and traded as low as $35.73 on August 1. The stock is back above its 200-day SMA trading as high as $39.14 on Wednesday.
M/I Homes ($22.66) broke below its 200-day SMA at $22.83 on July 24 and traded as low as $19.76 on August 5. The stock tested its 200-day SMA at Tuesday's high.
Meritage Homes (MTH - Get Report) ($42.06) has been below is 200-day SMA at $42.63 since April 10 and traded as low as $37.19 on May 15. There were two failed tests of the 200-day, on July 1 and on July 23. The stock traded as low as $37.41 on July 31.
Ryland Group (RYL) ($37.13) has been below is 200-day SMA at $39.45 since April 10 and traded as low as $31.22 on July 31. In-between there was a failed test of the 200-day on July 1.
Standard & Pacific ($8.37) broke below its 200-day SMA at $8.25 on July 24 and traded as low as $7.46 on August 1. The rally has the stock above its 200-day since Tuesday.
Armstrong World (AWI - Get Report) ($56.30), the designer of floors, ceilings and cabinets, broke below its 200-day SMA at $54.89 on July 28 following an earnings miss. After a low of $48.35 on July 31 the stock popped back above its 200-day on August 15 to a high of $56.72 on Tuesday filling the price gap to the July 9 low at $56.57.
Masco ($23.37) The home improvement and building products company beat analysts' EPS estimates on July 28 and the stock popped above its 200-day SMA at $21.79 on July 29 and traded as high as $22.54 that day. The stock then reversed back below its 200-day on July 30 and traded as low as $20.73 on July 31. Masco popped back above its 200-day on Aug. 11 and traded as high as $23.45 on Wednesday.
Radian Group ($14.26) The private mortgage insurer has been mostly below its 200-day SMA at $14.47 since July 7 and traded as low as $12.18 on August 4. The stock tested its 200-day SMA on Tuesday.
Weyerhaeuser ($34.10) beat analysts' EPS estimates on Aug. 1 when the timber company's stock traded as low as $31.09. The stock set an all-time multiyear high at $34.29 as of 10:00 AM on Thursday with a quarterly risky level at $36.65.
Crunching the Numbers with Richard Suttmeier: Moving Averages & Stochastics
This table provides the technical status for the stocks profiled in today's report.
I show the 12-month trailing price to earnings ratios and dividend yields.
There are five columns with moving average titles: Five-Week Modified Moving Average, 21-Day Simple Moving Average, 50-Day Simple Moving Average, 200-Day Simple Moving Average and the 200-Week Simple Moving Average.
The column labeled 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics shows the pattern on each weekly chart with readings from Oversold, Rising, Overbought, Declining or Flat.
Interpretations: Stocks below a moving average are listed in red.
Five-Week Modified Moving Average (MMA) is one of two indicators that define whether or not a weekly chart profile is positive, neutral or negative. The other is the status of the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.
A stock with a positive technical rating is above its five-week MMA with rising or overbought stochastics.
A stock with a negative technical rating is below its five-week MMA with declining or oversold stochastics.
A stock with a neutral technical rating has a profile that is not positive or negative.
The 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is considered a long-term technical support or resistance and as a "reversion to the mean" over a rolling three to five year horizon.
The 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a short-term technical support or resistance used by many hedge fund traders to adjust positions. A stock above its 21-day SMA will likely move higher over a rolling three to five day horizon and vice versa.
The 50-Day Simple Moving Average is also a technical support or resistance used by many strategists and commentators in financial TV.
The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is another technical support or resistance and I consider this level as a shorter-term "reversion to the mean" over a rolling six to 12 month horizon.
Crunching the Numbers with Richard Suttmeier: Earnings & Where to Buy & Where to Sell
This table presents the date the company reported EPS, the beat or miss of analysts estimates and the reported earnings per share, and where to buy on weakness and where to sell on strength.
EPS Date is the day the company reported or will report their quarterly results.
Beat / Miss - in red is a miss, in black is a beat. If blank the company has not reported quarterly results yet.
Reported EPS is the earnings per share reported for the last quarter. If the Beat / Miss is blank, this column is the analysts earnings per share estimate.
Value Levels, Pivots and Risky Levels are calculated based upon the last nine weekly closes (W), nine monthly closes (M), nine quarterly closes (Q), nine semiannual closes (S) and nine annual closes (A). I have one column for pivots, which is a magnet for the period shown. The columns to the left of the pivots are first and second value levels. The columns to the right of the pivots are first and second risky levels.
Investors who wish to buy a stock should use a good-until-canceled GTC limit order to buy weakness to a value level. Investors who want to sell a stock should use a GTC limit order to sell strength to a risky level.