NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- With the help of military action in Ukraine and Russia plus the triple witching options expiration, the stock indexes were whipsawed on Friday on huge volume.
In what appeared to be a huge move to the upside early on, the stock indexes did a complete reversal to the downside by mid-morning on the Ukraine-Russia military action.
The DJIA closed at 16662.91, down 50.67 points while the S&P 500 closed down fractionally at 1955.06. The Nasdaq was up by 11.92 at 4464.92 and the Russell 2000 closed lower by 1.69 at 1141.65. All the indexes closed well off their lows on Friday.
I expect to see the market open to the upside on Monday. The reason is strictly due to my algorithm process. The DJIA closed with an 81.05 algo number. A green open on Monday will give the index an overbought number but still plenty of room for more upside. The DJIA could stay green until Wednesday. The same holds true for the Nasdaq and S&P 500. The Nasdaq will be overbought on Monday green but not extreme.
The hedge fund machines know this and will push the indexes deep into overbought territory before we sell the markets sell off again.
The only index that was overbought going into Friday's trading was the Russell 2000. The RUT is still overbought and will again approach extreme overbought on Monday green. As I mentioned in Thursday's article, I was long the Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x (TZA - Get Report) . The events on Friday saw a huge reversal to the upside on the TZA and a huge profit for subscribers at www.strategicstocktrade.com.
Allow me to mention volume once again. The total U.S. equity market volume on Thursday was -18% and -42% versus its three- month and year-to-date averages. Please understand, as traders volume still matters. Tune out all the Wall Street pundits who say it is different this time and does not matter. It matters and Friday was another example of how quickly averages can turn to the downside when the hedge fund machines decide to sell in unison.
The Barclays 20-Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT - Get Report) was up another 1.09% on Friday and is now up 15.5% YTD. Yes, the move higher today may have had a flight to quality appearance, but the fact that the TLT is up 15.5% YTD is a "growth slowing" indicator in the U.S. economy.
On Friday, I sold most of my Direxion Small Cap Bear 3x for a better than 2% profit. I also added a new long position in Telecom Argentina (TEO - Get Report). TEO has an extraordinarily oversold signal.
At the time of publication, the author was long TZA and TEO, although positions may change at any time.
At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned, although positions may change at any time.