'Fast Money' Recap: Apple's New Products Won't Stop Stock Decline

 

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The S&P 500 dropped 0.65% but panel was focused more on on Apple's (AAPL) new product announcements. 

On CNBC's "Fast Money" TV show, Guy Adami, managing director of stockmonster.com, said he still believes shares of Apple will decline to roughly $88. 

Karen Finerman, president of Metropolitan Capital Advisors, said she is staying long Apple but buying back her short $105 call options that were used to hedge her long position. She is a seller of eBay (EBAY) following the introduction of Apple Pay. 

Brian Kelly, founder of Brian Kelly Capital, believes shares of Apple will decline to roughly $92. 

Tim Seymour, managing partner of Triogem Asset Management, said the Apple Watch is not exactly revolutionary, considering other companies have already created a similar device. He added that Apple's new products are exciting for the future, not necessarily the short term. He is a buyer of the stock below $95.

Colin Gillis, senior technology analyst and director of research at BGC Financial, has a neutral rating on Apple with a $98 price target. He said Apple is able to sell its smartphones for a premium because it is a high-end item. The decision to not include sapphire glass in the device should help boost margins. He added that Apple Pay sounds exciting but is unlikely to have a significant impact on total revenue. The Apple Watch, even with an optimistic guidance, may only represent 6% of total revenue, which isn't very significant either.

Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, said Apple tends to underperform following the introduction of its latest iPhone, with the stock down 0.5% after one week and 2% over the next month, on average. The technology sector also tends to lag the S&P 500 over those timeframes, he said. However, he did attribute some of the overall underperformance to the typical seasonal weakness in the equities market. He added that more than half of current iPhone users still have the iPhone 4S or earlier model, meaning the upgrade cycle should be strong. 

Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, was a guest on the show. Last time he was on the show, on Aug. 29, he downgraded shares of GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT) . Shares fell 13% on Tuesday.  

Molchanov said the company still seems unlikely to hit its guidance due to its sapphire product being left out of Apple's new iPhone. The stock is still expensive based on 2015 earnings and analysts will likely need to lower expectations, he concluded.

Seymour said GT Advanced Technologies has "a lot of work to do" in order to hits guidance.

The trading panel was asked if they would rather buy the S&P 500, Apple or the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) . 

Adami and Finerman were buyers of the S&P 500, Seymour chose Apple and Kelly wasn't buying any of these options. 

Adami, who has been a buyer of Palo Alto Networks (PANW) , continues to like the stock on the long side following its top-line earnings beat. Shares moved higher by roughly 4% in the after-hours. 

Seymour reasoned that shares of Tesoro (TSO) are headed lower, as is WTI crude oil. Short-sellers should use a stop-loss of $67.50. 

Kelly said he is starting to warm up to D.R. Horton (DHI) and other homebuilders. Although he is not currently long, the sector looks interesting so long as interest rates remain low. 

Adami reasoned that shares of Home Depot (HD) seem likely to decline, given that the stock had a strong rally to the upside and following a credit card data breach. It's likely to get worse, before it gets better, he cautioned. 

Stephen Hughes, chairman and CEO of Boulder Brands (BDBD) , said the company continues to drive organic growth "in the mid-teens" and is also growing Ebitda at a healthy pace. Although sales growth for its Smart Balance brand is slowing, other faster-growing brands are helping to offset the slowdown. Smart Balance represented 40% of revenue last year compared to just 30% this year. 

Adami said Boulder's drop in gross margins is concerning but the strength in the overall industry eases the concern. Seymour agreed but noted the trend for healthy and organic food is too strong and should push the valuation of the company higher.

Finerman reasoned that with a sub-$5 billion market cap, Hain Celestial Group (HAIN) is not too large to be considered an attractive takeover target. In fact, the larger portfolio of different brands may actually help make it more attractive. 

Nik Raman, co-founder and COO of uSell, when new phones are released there is generally a "massive spike" in the resale market for the older phones. However, the price for the older phone depreciates quite quickly, generally 11% in the two weeks following the introduction of the new device and 20% in just six weeks. He said the iPhone 6 launch "will be much bigger" than last year's launch. The resale market has tremendous growth, he argued, saying it has grown 100% in the past six months. 

Weibo (WB) jumped 7% and was the first stock on the show's "Pops & Drops" segment. Seymour said the company continues to rally over excitement in Alibaba, which owns 25% of Weibo. 

Avon Products (AVP) dropped 4%. Finerman pointed out that the CFO is resigning. She would avoid the stock. 

Mobileye (MBLY) climbed 7%. Kelly said the stock was upgraded by Citigroup but he advised investors to take some profits. 

Tenet Healthcare (THC) popped 3%. Adami said the stock seems poised to move higher from current levels. 

Kirk Skaugen, senior vice president of PC Clients Group at Intel (INTC) , said the company is attempting to eliminate passwords for users by adopting biometric facial recognition technology. The device or computer would use a camera to read the user's facial features in order to unlock the device. Intel is also focusing on wireless charging, which would be done through furniture such as tables at a coffee shop or in airports. Skaugen explained that the goal is to be "wireless" by 2020.

Adami advised taking profits in shares of Intel. The company doesn't have the type of growth required to sustain its current valuation. Kelly added that large-cap technology stocks may be weak over the next month or two. Seymour said he would not "chase" shares of Intel, but did argue that the company has more growth opportunity than most investors seem to think. 

Seymour said Yahoo! (YHOO) seems likely to shoot through $44 per share on the upside, especially as the valuation for Alibaba grows. 

For their final trades, Kelly is a buyer of Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Seymour is selling Tesoro. Finerman is a seller of eBay and Adami is buying General Dynamics (GD) .


-- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich.

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Bret Kenwell currently writes, blogs and also contributes to Robert Weinstein's Weekly Options Newsletter.

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