Now there's no welcome look in your eyes when I reach for you
And girl you're starting to criticize little things I do
It makes me just feel like crying baby 'cause baby
Something beautiful's dying...
You've lost that loving feeling, oh that loving feeling
Bring back that loving feeling, now it's gone, gone, gone
And I can't go on, no oh oh.
-- The Righteous Brothers, "You've Lost That Lovin' Feelin'"
For many months I have projected a down year for stocks, anticipating a broad S&P 500 trading range of between 1700 and 1950 for 2014.
I am sticking to this forecast.
Some Projected Price Levels on the S&P 500
We've long felt that the only value of stock forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good. Even now, Charlie and I continue to believe that short-term market forecasts are poison and should be kept locked up in a safe place, away from children and also from grown-ups who behave in the market like children.
-- Warren Buffett, 1992 Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders
If I had to hazard a guess, I would say that a reasonable year-end price target for the S&P 500 would be in the 1825-1875 area. (Note: The S&P 500 closed at 1931 on Friday.)
In terms of timing, I believe that we are now on the cusp of a textbook 10% correction from the 2014 highs.
The first test of the S&P 500's 200-day moving average since November 2012 (namely, into the 1860 area) seems possible by the fall.