'Fast Money' Recap: When to Cash in Your Chip Stocks

 

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The S&P 500 slid 0.05% while gold dropped almost 2% to start September. 

On CNBC's "Fast Money" TV show, the trading panel took a look at the semiconductor market and a few of its leaders. 

Guy Adami, managing director of stockmonster.com, said Qualcomm's (QCOM) recent selloff is somewhat "concerning," given how strong the industry has been. He said it will be very concerning if Intel (INTC) has a similar selloff. 

Dan Nathan, co-founder and editor of riskreversal.com, said investors should focus on SanDisk (SNDK) and Micron (MU) because of how well the stocks have performed over the past year. It will be an issue if these stocks drop significantly. 

Tim Seymour, managing partner of Triogem Asset Management, said many semiconductor stocks offer somewhat reasonable valuations and good growth. He is a buyer of Qualcomm. 

Karen Finerman, president of Metropolitan Capital Advisors, said the run in the semiconductor industry doesn't seem to be finished quite yet. It's just enduring a pullback.

Doug Freedman, semiconductor analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said the industry has a lot of "valuation attractiveness" and several catalysts. He expects China's LTE network to drive demand as well as an improving PC market and growing cloud storage business. His top pick is Marvell Technology (MRVL) and he has a $22 price target on the stock. 

On Apple's (AAPL) potential move into mobile payments, Finerman said it could be a big growth opportunity. She is selling $105 call options against some of her long position as a partial hedge. She is getting "nervous" as the stock continues to rally into its Sept. 9 event. 

Nathan said Apple will not find as much future growth in its hardware products as it will in its software and services businesses.

Seymour, who is still long the stock, said there is a chance Apple will disappoint investors at its upcoming event. But emerging markets and mobile payments are two catalysts for the company. 

Adami said he is concerned Apple looks somewhat "toppy" going into the event. 

Home Depot (HD) is investigating a possible cyber breach. Adami, who has suggested taking profits in the stock over the past few trading sessions, says this is just one more reason to do so. Nathan agreed. 

Finerman said it may be good news for Target (TGT) that other companies are also being hacked. Seymour argued Target is a "broken company" while Home Depot is not. This is not a reason to sell shares of HD. 

Seymour said Under Armour's (UA) women's business could improve, due to the company's recent endorsement deal with model Gisele Bundchen. This is good news, he added, but the stock is still expensive. Nathan added Under Armour's new deal could be a negative for Lululemon Athletica (LULU) . 

Adami said that between Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook (FB) , he is a buyer of Facebook, which he thinks can push up toward $85 per share. 

Nathan said investors who bought Twitter below $30 should consider taking some profits after the big move higher. However, he argued the stock looks poised to continue higher, especially if its next earnings report is strong.

Finerman is not a buyer of Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) , saying the stock doesn't have an attractive valuation.

Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, was a guest on the show. Although September is often viewed as a negative time for the stock market, it depends on how the S&P 500 has performed in the previous eight months. If the index is higher year to date going into September, it has an average return of 0.20% and investors can expect gains roughly 50% of the time. If the S&P 500 has a negative year-to-date return headed into September, the index averaged a decline of about 3.5% and only finishes positive roughly one-third of the time. 

Hickey noted two stocks that generally outperform and two expected to underperform in September. Nike (NKE) and CME Group (CME) could both break out to the mid-$80s, he said, while Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) and Reynolds American (RAI) could flounder.

Seymour said bank stocks could actually enjoy the month of September if interest rates are able to move higher. He is also a buyer of Nike. Nathan also likes Nike on the long side. Adami said he likes CME Group, which could quickly move to the mid-$80s.

David Leiker, an analyst at R.W. Baird, has a neutral rating on MobilEye (MBLY) with a $42 price target. He said most analysts are "in the same ballpark" in regards to price targets. Automakers are looking to implement the company's products in future cars, but it will take several years for these cars to hit the road. 

Seymour said the company has a "low cost, disruptor" product. However, he is not a buyer of the stock. Adami said investors should "definitely" not consider selling the stock short. Nathan argued that given MobilEye's revenue, the stock is overvalued. Investors who want to own the stock need to wait for a pullback. 

Tesla Motors (TSLA) climbed 5% and was the first stock on the show's "Pops & Drops" segment. Seymour wasn't optimistic, saying the company seems unlikely to hit its production estimates. 

Groupon (GRPN) popped 4%. Nathan said the stock is good on the long side for speculative investors. He suggested using $6 as a stop-loss. 

Boeing (BA) fell 1%. Adami said the stock needs to find support near $120 or it could head lower. 

Molina Healthcare (MOH) dropped 3%. Finerman, who is long the stock, attributed the drop to profit taking since the stock performed so well during August.

Thomas Fitzgerald, Citigroup FX technical head, said the S&P 500 recently made its fourth "outside bullish month" since 2009. In all three instances in which this bullish technical pattern has occurred, the market has notched monthly gains in four of the next five months. The average gain is 29% following this signal. Fitzgerald is looking for the S&P 500 to move to between 2,150 to 2,200 at the minimum, and possibly as high as 2,400 by year's end. He is also bullish on the U.S. dollar. 

Seymour said he doesn't expect the European Central Bank to make any major announcements in the near future. The U.S. dollar can continue higher, he added. 

Adami pointed out that outside reversals may not have as much merit as they once did, noting the Russell 2000 had an outside bearish month in July while the transports and S&P 500 almost did as well. 

Nathan pointed out the bullish options activity in shares of Staples (SPLS) , specifically in the January $14 call options. 

Finerman says Staples might do okay over the short term but it has a long-term issue fending off Amazon (AMZN) . Adami pointed out that shares of Staples seems to have strong support at $11. 

Seymour saidChina is a big growth zone for multinational companies. Nathan pointed out that some companies haven't fared so well, such as Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and Yum! Brands (YUM) . 

For their final trades, Seymour is taking profits in Best Buy (BBY) and Nathan said to take profits in Home Depot. Finerman suggested that investors who are long Apple sell upside call options against their long positions. Adami is a buyer of Palo Alto Networks (PANW) . 

-- Written by Bret Kenwell in Petoskey, Mich.

Follow @BretKenwell

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Bret Kenwell currently writes, blogs and also contributes to Robert Weinstein's Weekly Options Newsletter.

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