Stocks Face 'Black Hole' Bear Market Risk on Nasdaq's Sell Signal

NEW YORK (TheStreet) – Most market strategies still think that the stock market is cheap and have raised their price targets for the stock market indices. I say that if the weekly charts for the five major averages shift to negative this week or next, the July multiyear or all-time intraday highs will be confirmed as market tops.

To review, the all-time or multiyear intraday highs and the dates set are 17151.56 (on July 17) Dow Industrials, 1991.39 (on July 24) S&P 500, 4485.93 (on July 3) Nasdaq, 8515.04 (on July 23) Dow Transports and 1213.55 (on July 1) Russell 2000.

Closes this week and next below the five-week modified moving averages at 16724 Dow Industrials, 1941.5 S&P 500, 4363 Nasdaq, 8153 Dow Transports and 1144.75 Russell 2000 will result in negative weekly charts for all five. What’s preventing this from happening at this Friday’s close is the Nasdaq will still have a 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic reading above 80.00. These moving averages will be lower next week.

Here’s the weekly chart for the Nasdaq.

Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith

Note that the bull market up trend from the March 2009 low through the October 2011 low lines up with the 200-week simple moving average at 3221, which I consider the longer-term reversion to the mean. This is a risk if the weekly chart shifts to negative. This risk is below my semiannual and annual value levels at 7423 and 3471.

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