NEW YORK (TheStreet) - As July began I showed that each of the five major averages had positive weekly charts. Even so, I suggested that investors be aware of the risks associated with the wide spreads between annual value levels and monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels.
Since the weekly charts were positive new highs were possible despite the "Black Hole" pattern I described.
All-time or multiyear intraday highs and the dates they were set are 17151.56 (on July 17) Dow Industrials, 1991.39 (on July 24) S&P 500, 4485.93 (on July 3) Nasdaq, 8515.04 (on July 23) Dow Transports, and 1213.55 (on July 1) Russell 2000.
All five major equity averages ended last week below their five-week modified moving averages at 16814 Dow Industrials, 1949.8 S&P 500, 4369 Nasdaq, 8195 Dow Transports and 1150.95 Russell 2000. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics remain overbought except for the Russell 2000.
The July 31 monthly closes established monthly risky levels below the highs set in July at 16871 Dow Industrials, 1970.2 S&P 500, 4450 Nasdaq, 8292 Dow Transports and 1156.01 Russell 2000.
In the midst of this developing dynamic, on July 11, I talked about a flock of black swans cycling the "Black Hole" and it appears that this flock is growing.
Given negative weekly closes for all major averages the first downside risks remain my semiannual value levels at 16301 Dow Industrials, 1789.3 S&P 500, 3972 Nasdaq, 7423 Dow Transports and 1139.81 Russell 2000.
The downside risk below these levels are annual levels at 14835 and 13467 Dow Industrials, 1539.1 and 1442.1 S&P 500, 3471 and 3063 Nasdaq, 6249 and 5935 Dow Transports and 966.72 and 879.39 on the Russell 2000.
Let's look at the weekly chart for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Courtesy of MetaStock Xenith
The weekly chart for the Dow 30 (16493) shows the close below the five-week modified moving average at 16812. A close below this level this week makes the weekly chart negative. The up trend that connects the March 2009 low at 6470 though the October 2011 low at 10414 comes in at 14761 at the end of August. This level lines up with my annual value level at 14835. The 200-week simple moving average is the longer-term reversion to the mean at 13,676.