Chevron, Procter & Gamble, Tesla and More: How to Trade Earnings

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Four of the seven companies profiled today report quarterly results after the closing bell Thursday, and three report before the opening bell on Friday.

Tesla (TSLA) reports after the closing bell Thursday and is the biggest year-to-date gainer, up 52%. In second place and also reporting after the close is Public Storage (PSA), which has a year-to-date gain of 16%.

The biggest year-to-date losers also report after the closing bell Thursday. Mohawk (MHK) is down 15%, and homebuilder Standard & Pacific (SPF) is down 14%.

Dow Jones Industrial Average components Chevron (CVX) and Procter & Gamble (PG) report before the opening bell on Friday with Chevron up 5.8% year to date and Procter & Gamble down 4%. The Dow ended Wednesday up just 1.8% year to date.

Weyerhaeuser (WY) also reports before Friday's opening bell with this stock up just 0.8%, so investors may yell "Timber!" if there's an earnings miss.

Let's take a look at the stock profiles. Two "Crunching the Numbers" tables follow.

Chevron ($132.53) set an all-time intraday high at $135.10 on July 24, which was a test of my quarterly risky level at $134.81. The stock is above all five key moving averages in today's first "Crunching the Numbers" table.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of $2.73. Chevron has a 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 and a dividend of 3.2%.

The weekly chart is positive with its five-week modified moving average at $129.85 and its 200-week simple moving average at $109.95. Monthly and annual value levels are $123.74 and $118.80, respectively, with an annual pivot at $132.08 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $134.81 and $154.29, respectively.

Mohawk ($126.72) set an all-time intraday high at $155.48 on Jan. 23, and the stock has been trading lower since then as a stock-specific bubble popped. The stock had been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $138.02 between April 7 and July 9 before trading to as low as $124.69 around 11:00 a.m. Thursday.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $2.20. Mohawk has a 12-month trailing P/E ratio of 17.6 but does not pay a dividend.

The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $132.16. The stock dipped below my semiannual value level at $125.65, and my annual value level lags at $78.51. Weekly and monthly risky levels are $132.01 and $144.87, respectively.

Procter & Gamble ($78.16) set an all-time intraday high at $85.82 on Nov. 25 and has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $$80.48 since Jan. 13 and traded as low as $75.26 on Jan. 31.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 91 cents. Procter & Gamble has a 12-month trailing P/E ratio of 18.7 and a dividend yield at 3.3%.

The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $79.77 and its 200-week SMA at $70.76. My semiannual value level at $77.84 was tested as the stock was trading as low as $77.52 around 11:00 a.m. Thursday. My annual value level is $74.44. An annual pivot is $79.05 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $80.65 and $83.70, respectively.

Public Storage ($175.26) broke-out above its 200-day SMA on Feb. 7 when this average was $158.28. The stock set an all-time intraday high at $176.72 on April 29. The stock is above all five moving averages in today's first table.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.97. Public Storage has a 12-month trailing P/E ratio of 22.3 and dividend yield at 3.2%.

The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at $172.70. Quarterly and monthly value levels are $171.82 and $165.42, respectively, with a weekly pivot at $172.39 and semiannual risky levels at $183.24 and $197.16.

Standard & Pacific ($7.80) set a multiyear intraday high at $9.20 on March 4 and has been trading back and forth around its 200-day SMA at $8.26 since March 24, trading as low as $7.55 on May 7.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 13 cents. Standard & Pacific has a 12-month trailing P/E ratio of 16.3 but does not pay a dividend.

The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $8.09 and its 200-week SMA at $6.06. A semiannual pivot is $8.21 with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $9.01 and $9.74, respectively.

Tesla Motors ($228.92) set an all-time intraday high at $265.00 on Feb. 26 then held its 200-day SMA at its May 9 low at $177.22. The stock is above all five moving average in today's first table.

Analysts expect the company to report a loss of 24 cents. Tesla has an elevated 12-month trailing P/E ratio of 101.6 and does not pay a dividend.

The weekly chart will be positive given a close on Friday above its five-week MMA at $221.42. A monthly value level is $225.09 with a quarterly pivot at $227.65 and weekly risky level at $235.27.

Weyerhaeuser ($31.82) set an all-time intraday high at $33.75 on July 3 and opened Thursday below its 50-day SMA at $31.77 with its 200-day SMA at $30.39.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 34 cents. Weyerhaeuser has a 12 month trailing P/E ratio of 28.0 and a dividend yield of 2.8%.

The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close on Friday below its five-week MMA at $31.84. Monthly and annual value levels are $30.51 and $23.41, respectively, with a semiannual pivot at $31.06 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $36.65 and $38.00, respectively.

Crunching the Numbers With Richard Suttmeier: Moving Averages & Stochastics

This table provides the technical status for the stocks profiled in today's report.

There are five columns with moving average titles: Five-Week Modified Moving Average; 21-Day Simple Moving Average; 50-Day Simple Moving Average; 200-Day Simple Moving Average; and the 200-Week Simple Moving Average.

The column labeled 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics shows the pattern on each weekly chart with a reading of oversold, rising, overbought, declining or flat.

Interpretations: Stocks below a moving average are listed in red.

Five-Week Modified Moving Average (MMA) is one of two indicators that define whether a weekly chart profile is positive, neutral or negative. The other is the status of the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.

A stock with a positive technical rating is above its five-week MMA with rising or overbought stochastics.

A stock with a negative technical rating is below its five-week MMA with declining or oversold stochastics.

A stock with a neutral technical rating has a profile that is not positive or negative.

The 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is considered a long-term technical support or resistance level and as a "reversion to the mean" over a rolling three- to five-year horizon. (Even Apple (AAPL) declined to its 200-week SMA in June 2013.)

The 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a short-term technical support or resistance used by many hedge fund traders to adjust positions. A stock above its 21-day SMA will likely move higher over a rolling three- to five-day horizon and vice versa.

The 50-Day Simple Moving Average is also a technical support or resistance used by many strategists and commentators in financial TV.

The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is another technical support or resistance level, and I consider this level as a shorter-term "reversion to the mean" over a rolling six- to 12-month horizon. (Even Apple tested or crossed its 200-day SMA in nine of the last 10 years.)

Crunching the Numbers With Richard Suttmeier: Earnings & Where to Buy & Where to Sell

This table presents the EPS estimates including date and before or after the close, and where to buy on weakness and where to sell on strength.

"EPS Date" is the day the company reports its quarterly results.

"EPS Estimate" is the EPS estimate from Wall Street analysts.

Value Levels, Pivots and Risky Levels are calculated based upon the last nine weekly closes (W), nine monthly closes (M), nine quarterly closes (Q), nine semiannual closes (S) and nine annual closes (A). I have one column for pivots, which is a magnet for the period shown. The columns to the left of the pivots are first and second value levels. The columns to the right of the pivots are first and second risky levels.

Investors who wish to buy a stock should use a good-'til-canceled limit order to buy weakness to a value level. Investors who want to sell a stock should use a GTC limit order to sell strength to a risky level.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

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