NEW YORK (Real Money) -- The rolling correction continues. We have seen some really powerful downward moves in some of the major industrials of late. They remind me of something that Byron Wien -- senior adviser at Blackstone, and by far my favorite market commentator -- said at the beginning of the year. He remarked that the S&P 500 would initially drop 10% in a worst-of-times situation, and then in a best-of-times situation it could rally 20%, heading perhaps to 2300 at the end of the year.
I point this out because Wien put out his monthly note Tuesday night, and it is very positive on the market -- but, in it, he does not directly address that he thought stocks would have that initial decline.
Yet, as I look over so many of the big industrials and many of the technology stocks, I see the market did have a pretty large correction already. Stocks such as General Electric (GE) and Boeing (BA) and United Technologies (UTX) are down huge from their highs. The cloud-computing stocks, despite their nascent rallies, are down much more than 10%.
Many of the drug stocks have been rocked.
In fact, the advance has become narrower and narrower.
So, in this void, perhaps it is worth interpreting Wien thus: We have seen a huge correction within the market, and you now need to look for signs that it is ending.
On Tuesday I talked about the weakness in so many cycles: aerospace, farm, housing, transports, trucking, insurance. I could add retail and restaurants, excepting special situations, too.
The question I have is: Have the stocks in those cycles already adjusted to the weakness?
Let's take agriculture: last night I had Agco (AGCO) on "Mad Money." That's the third-largest agricultural-equipment maker. We all know that prices are down huge for grains. But Agco shares are down 16%. Isn't it right to ask whether the stock has factored that in?
Or take Boeing. This stock has had a relentless decline: It has lost 10% for the year and now has a price-to-earnings ratio of 15. Isn't that enough of a pasting?