NEW YORK (MainStreet) — President Obama will give a major speech next month outlining his proposals to create jobs and help the unemployed and laying out a framework for improving the U.S. economy that will likely set the grounds for debate going into the 2012 elections.
Early indications are that the president’s policy recommendations will focus on a mix of tax cuts, infrastructure spending and providing more aid to the unemployed -- policies that the president and many economists have emphasized in the past. But we spoke with labor experts to find out what Obama really needs to say this time around to spur job growth.
Targeted Payroll Tax Cuts
In a very real sense, the millions of unemployed and underemployed Americans fell off the political map this year, as Washington focused more on raising the debt ceiling than providing additional assistance to those who continue to struggle with finding sustained employment.
Two proposals that the president might emphasize this time around are extending unemployment benefits to help provide a lifeline to the long-term unemployed, which Congress has done multiple times in the past, and renewing the payroll tax cut approved in December 2010 that is set to expire at the end of this year, which decreases the taxes workers pay on Social Security benefits so they can pocket more of their paychecks.
But many economists say the president needs to go further.
"Just doing this isn’t a path towards fixing the jobs crisis, it’s just following a ‘do no harm’ principle,” said Andrew Fieldhouse, a federal budget policy analyst with the Economic Policy Institute, a nonpartisan think tank. “These policies do not actually boost economy activity, it’s just that allowing them to lapse would hurt it.”
Fieldhouse advocates for instituting a revised payroll tax cut that targets low- to middle-income workers, rather than all employees, which he argues would be more effective in boosting economic activity, since the tax rebates will be more significant to these workers relative to their overall income. To emphasize this point, Fieldhouse points out that even Warren Buffett receives an annual rebate of $2,136 under the current payroll tax cut model, which is money that won’t likely help him or the economy very much.
By refocusing the tax cuts to working families with a “higher propensity to consume,” Fieldhouse predicts the government would see greater consumer spending and a corresponding increase in employment from the businesses that benefit from that spending.
President Obama emphasized the need for infrastructure projects to create new jobs in this year’s State of the Union speech and attempted to implement this approach as part of the stimulus package in his early days in office, but according to several economists, he has not been bold enough. They suggest he needs to double down on the infrastructure message in his speech next month.
“It seems to me pretty clear at this point that general tax reductions (in income or payroll taxes) are not doing as much to boost demand for goods and services produced in the U.S. as we could do if we simply started government capital projects that put unemployed construction and heavy manufacturing workers into jobs,” said Gary Burtless, a labor economist with the Brookings Institute.
As Burtless and others point out, only a small percentage of the money from the Recovery Act went directly to infrastructure projects like fixing up highways and bridges, with the vast majority going to fund tax cuts, financial aid to states and job training programs. Part of the reasoning for this, Burtless says, was the belief that infrastructure projects do not lead to immediate job creation -- or as Obama famously put it, there is “no such thing as shovel-ready projects.”