Amazon Expected to Post Loss; 5 Others Set to Report

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Here are profiles of stocks of six companies that are scheduled to report quarterly results during the next two days, including e-commerce bellwether Amazon (AMZN), whose stock is down 10% so far this year on valuation concerns.

The stock profiles are followed by two "crunching-the-numbers" tables.

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Amazon ($358.14) traded as low as $284.38 on May 9, and has been above its 200-day simple moving average at $349.16 since July 14.

Analysts expect the company to report a loss of 13 cents per share after the closing bell today. The company's 12-month trailing price-to-earnings ratio is a whopping 693.9.

The weekly chart is positive but overbought its five-week modified moving average at $339.53. Semiannual and annual value levels are $344.36 and $334.95, respectively, with a weekly pivot at $359.85 and quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $385.43 and $419.21, respectively.

First Niagara (FNFG) ($8.56) has been below its 200-day SMA at $9.58 since Jan. 24, trading as low as $8.19 on Feb.3.

Analysts expect the regional bank to report earnings of 18 cents per share before the opening bell on Friday. The company has a 12-month trailing P/E of 11.7 and dividend yield at 3.8%.

The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $8.70. Semiannual and monthly value levels are $8.15 and $7.82, respectively, with a weekly pivot at $8.83 and annual risky levels at $10.37 and $10.96.

Pandora Media (P) ($27.55) has been below its 200-day SMA at $29.19 since July 7. Analysts expect the company to report a loss of 4 cents per share after the closing bell Thursday. The company's 12-month trailing P/E is elevated at 170.8.

The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at $27.11 with declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastics. There's a weekly pivot at $27.88 with quarterly and monthly risky levels at $30.33 and $32.08, respectively.

Starbucks (SBUX) has been above its 200-day SMA at $75.50 since June 18.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of 66 cents per share after the closing bell on Thursday. The company has a 12-month trailing P/E of 59.5 and dividend yield of 1.3%.

The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $76.99. A monthly value level is $67.98 with a semiannual pivot at $79.95, and quarterly and weekly risky levels at $81.28 and $82.63, respectively.

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) ($86.37) is below its 21-day and 50-day SMAs at $86.85 and $87.03, but above its 200-day SMA at $82.60.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $1.37 per share before the opening bell on Friday. The company has a 12-month trailing P/E of 16.8 and dividend yield of 2.3%.

The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $86.53 and its 200-week SMA at $73.97. Annual value levels are $75.55 and $66.57 with a weekly pivot at $87.69 and monthly and semiannual risky levels at $88.51 and $90.17, respectively.

VIsa (V) ($221.20) is above all five key moving averages in the first "crunching the numbers" table.

Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $2.09 per share after the closing bell on Thursday. It has a 12-month trailing P/E of 26.5 and dividend yield of 0.7%.

The weekly chart is positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $215.67 and its 200-week SMA at $139.07. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $217.88 and $183.91, respectively, with semiannual and monthly risky levels at $232.22 and $232.39,

Crunching the Numbers with Richard Suttmeier: Moving Averages & Stochastics

This table provides the technical status for the stocks profiled in today's report.

The 12-month trailing price to earnings ratio

The Dividend Yield

There are five columns with moving average titles: Five-Week Modified Moving Average, 21-Day Simple Moving Average, 50-Day Simple Moving Average, 200-Day Simple Moving Average and the 200-Week Simple Moving Average.

The column labeled 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics shows the pattern on each weekly chart with readings from Oversold, Rising, Overbought, Declining or Flat.

Interpretations: Stocks below a moving average are listed in red.

Five-Week Modified Moving Average (MMA) is one of two indicators that define whether or not a weekly chart profile is positive, neutral or negative. The other is the status of the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.

A stock with a positive technical rating is above its five-week MMA with rising or overbought stochastics.

A stock with a negative technical rating is below its five-week MMA with declining or oversold stochastics.

A stock with a neutral technical rating has a profile that is not positive or negative.

The 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is considered a long-term technical support or resistance and as a "reversion to the mean" over a rolling three- to five-year horizon.

The 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a short-term technical support or resistance used by many hedge fund traders to adjust positions. A stock above its 21-day SMA will likely move higher over a rolling three- to five-day horizon and vice versa.

The 50-Day Simple Moving Average is also a technical support or resistance used by many strategists and commentators in financial TV.

The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is another technical support or resistance and I consider this level as a shorter-term "reversion to the mean" over a rolling six- to 12-month horizon.

Crunching the Numbers with Richard Suttmeier: Earnings & Where to Buy & Where to Sell

This table presents the EPS estimates including date and before or after the close, and where to buy on weakness and where to sell on strength.

Value Levels, Pivots and Risky Levels are calculated based upon the last nine weekly closes (W), nine monthly closes (M), nine quarterly closes (Q), nine semiannual closes (S) and nine annual closes (A). I have one column for pivots, which is a magnet for the period shown. The columns to the left of the pivots are first and second value levels. The columns to the right of the pivots are first and second risky levels.

Investors who wish to buy a stock should use a good-until-canceled GTC limit order to buy weakness to a value level. Investors who want to sell a stock should use a GTC limit order to sell strength to a risky level.

At the time of publication, the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

TheStreet Ratings team rates AMAZON.COM INC as a Hold with a ratings score of C. TheStreet Ratings Team has this to say about their recommendation:

"We rate AMAZON.COM INC (AMZN) a HOLD. The primary factors that have impacted our rating are mixed ? some indicating strength, some showing weaknesses, with little evidence to justify the expectation of either a positive or negative performance for this stock relative to most other stocks. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its robust revenue growth, impressive record of earnings per share growth and compelling growth in net income. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including weak operating cash flow and poor profit margins."

Highlights from the analysis by TheStreet Ratings Team goes as follows:

  • The revenue growth came in higher than the industry average of 4.8%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues rose by 22.8%. This growth in revenue appears to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, improving the earnings per share.
  • AMAZON.COM INC has improved earnings per share by 27.8% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past year. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year, AMAZON.COM INC turned its bottom line around by earning $0.58 versus -$0.10 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($1.09 versus $0.58).
  • Compared to where it was a year ago today, the stock is now trading at a higher level, reflecting both the market's overall trend during that period and the fact that the company's earnings growth has been robust. We feel that the combination of its price rise over the last year and its current price-to-earnings ratio relative to its industry tend to reduce its upside potential.
  • The gross profit margin for AMAZON.COM INC is currently lower than what is desirable, coming in at 33.92%. Regardless of AMZN's low profit margin, it has managed to increase from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 0.54% trails the industry average.
  • Net operating cash flow has declined marginally to -$2,502.00 million or 5.48% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower.

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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