NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- We here at TheStreet don't claim to know where the gold price is headed tomorrow or next week, but we talk enough to the Wall Street pros to give you a sense of which direction the yellow metal is trending.
The first half of 2014 was surprisingly strong for gold.
We say "surprisingly" because gold is coming off its worst full-year performance in more than three decades after a market crash in April 2013 fueled a 30% drop.
But a drop of more than 9.5% from January through June of 2014 left many retail investors to wonder if the rise was a sign that $1,900 gold -- where the market topped out in September 2011 after a decade-long bull run -- was soon to return.
While positive fundamentals suggest gold could be poised for some more gains, there are other reasons Wall Street is betting that the second half won't be as good as the first half of this year. That means if you didn't get into the precious metal at the start of the new year, now may not be the best time to jump in with the hope of turning a sweet profit.
"Looking ahead, we believe that gold's current shine is unlikely to last and the downtrend, which started in 2013, is likely to resume as we move into the second half of the year. First, U.S. economic data indicates that economic activity has picked up in recent months, pointing to stronger growth in the second quarter. … We are therefore likely to see continued tapering of the Fed's asset purchase program, and, later on, a gradual normalization of the policy, weighing on gold's safe haven appeal," Societe Generale precious metals analyst Robin Bhar wrote last week in a note.