¤ The WrapIt was one of the largest three week Commitment of Trader changes in memory for gold, as more than 97,000 commercial contracts were sold on a $70 gold price rally since June 10. Most notable was that the raptors accounted for 80,000 contracts of the commercial selling and the technical funds 88,000 contracts of the buy side. Never have two distinct groups controlled so much of the positioning.
In COMEX silver futures, the 9,100 contract increase put the total commercial net short position at 52,000 contracts. This is highest level of commercial shorts in COMEX silver since December 18, 2012. I hope everyone knows that “highest” here means, in COT terms, most bearish. I must point out that in December 2012 silver was around $34; whereas today the price is near $21 and below the cost of production for many primary silver miners. - Silver analyst Ted Butler: 07 July 2014 Another day---and another non-for-profit seller in both gold and silver at the London p.m. gold fix---and it was a Groundhog Day in platinum. Here are the 6-month charts for both gold and silver updated with Tuesday's trading data. As you can see, we're still chopping sideways in price in both metals waiting for some sort of resolution to this this current overbought situation---and the now wildly bearish COT numbers, especially in silver. I'm also aware that there may be a 'black swan' out there---and just as much as a precious metal shortage would end the price management scheme, the same can be said for some other potential " long tail" events that are unknown to us at the moment. Yesterday at the close of Comex trading, was the cut-off for Friday's COT Report---and just looking at the five day reporting period on the charts above, I would guess that we'll see more deterioration in the Commercial net short position in both gold and silver, but mostly in gold. I'll be happy to wrong, but that's the way I'd bet ten bucks if forced to. As I type this paragraph, it's about 45 minutes to the London open. All four precious metals are up a bit from their respective closes on Tuesday. Gold volume is pretty light, but higher than it was this time yesterday. Silver volume is light as well---and lower that it was on Tuesday at this time. The dollar index is flat. And as I prepared to send this out the door at 4:45 a.m. EDT, I note that not a lot has changed since I wrote the above paragraph a bit over two hours ago. All four precious metals are hanging onto some or all of their gains from back then---and volumes are more or less what I expect at this time of day when there isn't much going on from a price perspective. The dollar index, which had been flat, dipped within spitting distance of the 80.00 level about forty minutes before the London open, but a buyer of last resort was there to save the day. I haven't the foggiest idea as to what the rest of the Wednesday trading session will bring---and nothing will surprise me when I look at the gold chart later this morning. Enjoy your day---and I'll see you here tomorrow.