Why the Dow Is Likely Headed to 17,250: Price Action, Ichimoku Technicals

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- For the last 30 days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) was consolidating below the 17,000 figure -- until late last week, just before the Fourth of July holiday. Then the Dow broke through to new highs.

So is this bullish run sustainable?

We note two key points in the daily chart price action. Both support our medium-term bullish view.

1. Resistance levels become support

Observe how the prior all-time highs (at point A, on the left of the chart) at 16,735 became a base of support for the index to push higher (to B, at the middle of the chart).

When resistance becomes support, this is known as a role reversal level. It means that the bulls, which once respected a resistance level, now treat it as a base to push higher.

This is a common formation in long-term trends where new bulls enter the trend, as current longs add to their positions.

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2. Weaker rejections

Observe how the price action formed consistent highs at the 17,000 mark (at points 1 and 2 on the above chart). The price action also showed bullish support by forming two HLs (higher lows), with the second leg forming new all-time highs.

Notice how the second rejection (point 2) was a shorter pullback, suggesting that the bearish pressure was weakening over time.

These hints, along with the index's ability to sustain itself above the 17,000 mark, all suggest that the bulls are happy to buy on pullbacks and carry the index higher.

So let's look at some more technical analysis to back up this point.

Ichimoku Analysis

Our bullish view is also supported by ichimoku analysis, using both ichimoku wave and price theories.

The chart below shows the Ichimoku Cloud. I have marked the general N-wave structure via the points marked A, B, C and D.

The ichimoku price calculation for this type of move would be a V-type, in which V = B + (B - C). The result would be D, which would mean hitting a price target of about 17,250 before the market formed a larger correction.

In addition to this, the Tenkan line (the slim black line, which gauges the underlying momentum), is still above the kijun line (the slim red line). Also, the Kumo (the blue cloud) is quite thick and still rising.

All these components -- from an ichimoku perspective -- suggest that the U.S. index is well supported for higher prices in the short and medium term.

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Our trade ideas: Maintain a bullish bias while above 16,735 medium term. Look for short-term pullbacks toward the 17,000 and 16,845 support zones to get long. Add to current longs with 17,250 as the medium-term upside target.

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

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