NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
Last week, Kass wrote about St. Louis Fed President James Bullard hawkish position and parsed encouraging data from financial information and services provider Markit.
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Bullard: A Hawk at the Fed?
Originally published on Thursday, June 26, at 10:31 a.m. EDT.
James Bullard, the St. Louis Fed president, does not vote and is usually middle of the road on the dove/hawk scale, but he is shifting into the hawk camp today.
[Read: Yellens Desperate Fed Easing Probably Wont Do Any Good]
He thinks inflation "may" reach 2% by year-end (vs. year-end 2015 that the FOMC dots show). He thinks the unemployment rate will drop below 6% by year-end (FOMC dots estimate 2015). And, he sounds like Mark Carney of the Bank of England with this line: "[M]arkets don't appreciate how close Fed is to goals."
His conclusion from this is that he forecasts the first rate rise at the end of first-quarter 2015.
[Read: Inflation Inches Up as Fed Pares Stimulus]
Bottom line: In terms of markets and rate policy, we can discount Bullard, because he does not vote, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen and New York Fed President William Dudley still rule the dovish roost. But, the reality of the recent unemployment rate and inflation data points to a sooner rather than later meeting of the Fed's mandates, and certainly before the mid-2015 aggregate FOMC estimates, and certainly earlier than stock market expectations.