Trade-Ideas: Philip Morris International (PM) Is Today's

Editor's Note: Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of TheStreet, Inc. or any of its contributors including Jim Cramer or Stephanie Link.

Trade-Ideas LLC identified Philip Morris International ( PM) as a "roof leaker" (crossing below the 200-day simple moving average on higher than normal relative volume) candidate. In addition to specific proprietary factors, Trade-Ideas identified Philip Morris International as such a stock due to the following factors:

  • PM has an average dollar-volume (as measured by average daily share volume multiplied by share price) of $503.7 million.
  • PM has traded 1.7 million shares today.
  • PM is trading at 2.97 times the normal volume for the stock at this time of day.
  • PM crossed below its 200-day simple moving average.

'Roof Leaker' stocks are worth watching because trading stocks that begin to experience a breakdown can lead to potentially massive losses. Once psychological and technical resistance barriers like the 200-day moving average are breached on higher than normal relative volume, the stock may then be subject to emotional selling from investors that can continue to drive the stock lower. Regardless of the impetus behind the price and volume action, when a stock moves with weakness and volume it can indicate the start of a new, potentially dangerous, trend.

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More details on PM:

Philip Morris International Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells cigarettes and other tobacco products. The company's portfolio of brands include Marlboro, Merit, Parliament, Virginia Slims, L&M, Chesterfield, Bond Street, Lark, Muratti, Next, Philip Morris, and Red & White. The stock currently has a dividend yield of 4.2%. PM has a PE ratio of 17.2. Currently there are 9 analysts that rate Philip Morris International a buy, 2 analysts rate it a sell, and 2 rate it a hold.

The average volume for Philip Morris International has been 4.4 million shares per day over the past 30 days. Philip Morris International has a market cap of $139.8 billion and is part of the consumer goods sector and tobacco industry. The stock has a beta of 0.96 and a short float of 0.7% with 1.96 days to cover. Shares are down 0.7% year-to-date as of the close of trading on Thursday.

STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

TheStreetRatings.com Analysis:

TheStreet Quant Ratings rates Philip Morris International as a hold. The company's strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its expanding profit margins and increase in stock price during the past year. However, as a counter to these strengths, we also find weaknesses including deteriorating net income, weak operating cash flow and feeble growth in the company's earnings per share.

Highlights from the ratings report include:
  • The gross profit margin for PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL is rather high; currently it is at 68.41%. Regardless of PM's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, PM's net profit margin of 27.10% compares favorably to the industry average.
  • PM, with its decline in revenue, underperformed when compared the industry average of 3.0%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues slightly dropped by 8.8%. The declining revenue appears to have seeped down to the company's bottom line, decreasing earnings per share.
  • In its most recent trading session, PM has closed at a price level that was not very different from its closing price of one year earlier. This is probably due to its weak earnings growth as well as other mixed factors. Looking ahead, our view is that this company's fundamentals will not have much impact in either direction, allowing the stock to generally move up or down based on the push and pull of the broad market.
  • The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed against the S&P 500 and did not exceed that of the Tobacco industry. The net income has decreased by 11.8% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, dropping from $2,125.00 million to $1,875.00 million.
  • Net operating cash flow has decreased to $715.00 million or 47.54% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing the cash generation rate to the industry average, the firm's growth is significantly lower.

STOCKS TO BUY: TheStreet Quant Ratings has identified a handful of stocks that can potentially TRIPLE in the next 12 months. Learn more.

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