Then there's the company's image, which has resembled a punching bag since the arrival of the original iPhone. BlackBerry needs to do more with its marketing to turn around its loser persona. I think the company's marketing failures has had more to do with its current status than any damage done by competitors.

Consider this: In the most recent quarter, BlackBerry sold 3.4 million smartphones, more than 38 million fewer than the number of iPhones sold by Apple. BlackBerry said about 2.3 million of the devices sold during the quarter were the BlackBerry 7 models.

This means close to 70% of handsets sold were the older model phones and not the newer BlackBerry 10 models. This tells me both the company's design and marketing department are failing. I haven't seen Chen address these areas.

The deal with Amazon suggests the vast majority of the apps will be made available on the BlackBerry 10 devices. But if no one is buying that phone, who cares?

The company will report fiscal first-quarter earnings Thursday. Analysts will be looking for 25 cents in earnings per share on revenue of $969.56 million, representing close to 70% year-over-year revenue decline. Analysts have become more bearish about this quarter.

Revenue estimates have dropped more than 10% over the past three months, coinciding with the stock's pullback during that span. But things are likely to get worse. I expect the stock to revert back to $6 by the end of the year, or 27% below current value.

At the time of publication, the author was long AAPL.


This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

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