Failure. Never materializes. Apple operates from a position of such great strength -- and brute force -- that neither of these potential results will impact its business. That's because, at the moment, Apple's business is all about iPhone. iPhone 6 in particular. Some people think that's a bad thing. I think it's absolutely fantastic, which is why I don't understand why Apple would want to surf the unchartered territory (relative to other areas it has redefined and disrupted such as portable music players, the CrackBerry and the laptop) of wearables.
If you're going to get into a space as complicated as health (once again ... I'm just not sure why Apple wants to go there), you can very easily do everything you need to do with iPhone 6. Or at least that's the frame of mind I would assume. Put another way, if you can't get it done via iPhone, don't do it. At least not now. Wait for a few others beyond Samsung to fail with wearables before you dive in and do it right (if at all). Isn't that the Apple way?
But all of that aside ... forget the sense, or lack thereof, in Apple entering health via a wearable. Forget Apple not tying everything it does in the health space to iPhone 6 (and maybe iPad and Mac). Forget all of that. Because it's nothing more than noise -- a mere distraction -- to what will be the central Apple story for the rest of 2014 heading into 2015 ...
That's why I would tie the SmartHome and anything you would have an iWatch do to the iPhone. But screech to a halt on my moot point ... it's just nitpicking. Regardless of the particulars in Apple's strategy, iPhone 6 will absolutely crush unit sales. Depending on the iPhone 6 release date, Q3 could be pretty spectacular, but Apple will really bring the power come January 2015 when it reports results from the Q4 holiday shopping season quarter. That's when Apple lies any and all of of the criticism that stems from whatever it does or doesn't do with iWatch to rest.
So you know it could be coming -- some sort of dip on iWatch-related pessimism. Whatever that looks like. It didn't come out ... so Apple can no longer innovate. Or It came out and didn't sell as well as iPad. That's all noise. Noise that might ding APPL stock. If that happens, it could make sense to load up. Not that it wouldn't be smart to load up on AAPL stock anyway.
When Apple blows the doors off of quarterly unit sales with iPhone 6, its stock will absolutely take off. I'm 110% serious -- speaking within the context of long-term investing -- that even post-split AAPL could become a $1,000 stock.
Remember -- I'm not one of these dopes who misguidedly helped color the modern day concept of long-term investing with notions of instant gratification. I don't consider long-term six months or a year. I consider it three, four, five, even 10 years burning down the road.
You don't buy a stock because you think it's going to go to $1,000. That's dumb. Rather, you buy a stock because you believe in the long-term core prospects of the company that floats it. And, if you look around any of the sectors Apple rules (tech, retail, you name it), there is no company with a stronger existing core and better positioned to further the dominance of that existing core. Nearly all of Apple's success for the foreseeable future stems from iPhone 6. That's where investors should focus, even if the critics do not.
--Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.