Editor's Note: Any reference to TheStreet Ratings and its underlying recommendation does not reflect the opinion of TheStreet, Inc. or any of its contributors including Jim Cramer or Stephanie Link. TheStreet Ratings' stock model projects a stock's total return potential over a 12-month period including both price appreciation and dividends. Our Buy, Hold or Sell ratings designate how we expect these stocks to perform against a general benchmark of the equities market and interest rates.
While plenty of high-yield opportunities exist, investors must always consider the safety of their dividend and the total return potential of their investment. It is not uncommon for a struggling company to suspend high-yielding dividends which could subsequently result in precipitous share price declines.
TheStreet Ratings' stock rating model views dividends favorably, but not so much that other factors are disregarded. Our model gauges the relationship between risk and reward in several ways, including: the pricing drawdown as compared to potential profit volatility, i.e. how much one is willing to risk in order to earn profits?; the level of acceptable volatility for highly performing stocks; the current valuation as compared to projected earnings growth; and the financial strength of the underlying company as compared to its stock's valuation as compared to its stock's performance.
These and many more derived observations are then combined, ranked, weighted, and scenario-tested to create a more complete analysis. The result is a systematic and disciplined method of selecting stocks. As always, stock ratings should not be treated as gospel — rather, use them as a starting point for your own research.
The following pages contain our analysis of 3 stocks with substantial yields, that ultimately, we have rated "Sell."Alon USA Partners (NYSE: ALDW) shares currently have a dividend yield of 15.70%. Alon USA Partners, LP refines and markets petroleum products primarily in the South Central and Southwestern regions of the United States. The company owns and operates a crude oil refinery in Big Spring, Texas with crude oil throughput capacity of 70,000 barrels per day. The company has a P/E ratio of 12.93. The average volume for Alon USA Partners has been 161,000 shares per day over the past 30 days. Alon USA Partners has a market cap of $1.1 billion and is part of the energy industry. Shares are up 3.8% year-to-date as of the close of trading on Thursday. TheStreet Ratings rates Alon USA Partners as a sell. The company's weaknesses can be seen in multiple areas, such as its deteriorating net income, generally high debt management risk, poor profit margins, weak operating cash flow and generally disappointing historical performance in the stock itself. Highlights from the ratings report include:
- The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and the Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels industry. The net income has significantly decreased by 54.8% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, falling from $93.53 million to $42.24 million.
- Currently the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.95 is quite high overall and when compared to the industry average, suggesting that the current management of debt levels should be re-evaluated.
- The gross profit margin for ALON USA PARTNERS LP is currently extremely low, coming in at 7.99%. It has decreased from the same quarter the previous year. Along with this, the net profit margin of 4.93% trails that of the industry average.
- Net operating cash flow has significantly decreased to $45.27 million or 72.83% when compared to the same quarter last year. In addition, when comparing to the industry average, the firm's growth rate is much lower.
- The share price of ALON USA PARTNERS LP has not done very well: it is down 21.93% and has underperformed the S&P 500, in part reflecting the company's sharply declining earnings per share when compared to the year-earlier quarter. The fact that the stock is now selling for less than others in its industry in relation to its current earnings is not reason enough to justify a buy rating at this time.
- You can view the full Alon USA Partners Ratings Report.
- The share price of FLY LEASING LTD -ADR has not done very well: it is down 17.82% and has underperformed the S&P 500, in part reflecting the company's sharply declining earnings per share when compared to the year-earlier quarter. Looking ahead, other than the push or pull of the broad market, we do not see anything in the company's numbers that may help reverse the decline experienced over the past 12 months. Despite the past decline, the stock is still selling for more than most others in its industry.
- FLY LEASING LTD -ADR has experienced a steep decline in earnings per share in the most recent quarter in comparison to its performance from the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share have declined over the last year. We anticipate that this should continue in the coming year. During the past fiscal year, FLY LEASING LTD -ADR reported lower earnings of $1.67 versus $1.79 in the prior year. For the next year, the market is expecting a contraction of 35.6% in earnings ($1.08 versus $1.67).
- The company, on the basis of change in net income from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly underperformed when compared to that of the S&P 500 and the Trading Companies & Distributors industry. The net income has significantly decreased by 89.2% when compared to the same quarter one year ago, falling from $32.85 million to $3.56 million.
- The debt-to-equity ratio is very high at 3.38 and currently higher than the industry average, implying increased risk associated with the management of debt levels within the company.
- Current return on equity is lower than its ROE from the same quarter one year prior. This is a clear sign of weakness within the company. Compared to other companies in the Trading Companies & Distributors industry and the overall market, FLY LEASING LTD -ADR's return on equity significantly trails that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
- You can view the full Fly Leasing Ratings Report.
- The gross profit margin for USA COMPRESSION PRTNRS LP is rather high; currently it is at 64.71%. Regardless of USAC's high profit margin, it has managed to decrease from the same period last year. Despite the mixed results of the gross profit margin, the net profit margin of 7.79% trails the industry average.
- Looking at where the stock is today compared to one year ago, we find that it is higher, and it has outperformed the rise in the S&P 500 over the same period. Looking ahead, the stock's rise over the last year has already helped drive it to a level which is relatively expensive compared to the rest of its industry, implying reduced upside potential.
- USA COMPRESSION PRTNRS LP has improved earnings per share by 42.9% in the most recent quarter compared to the same quarter a year ago. The company has demonstrated a pattern of positive earnings per share growth over the past year. We feel that this trend should continue. This trend suggests that the performance of the business is improving. During the past fiscal year, USA COMPRESSION PRTNRS LP increased its bottom line by earning $0.32 versus $0.15 in the prior year. This year, the market expects an improvement in earnings ($0.57 versus $0.32).
- The company, on the basis of net income growth from the same quarter one year ago, has significantly outperformed against the S&P 500 and exceeded that of the Energy Equipment & Services industry average. The net income increased by 55.3% when compared to the same quarter one year prior, rising from $2.52 million to $3.92 million.
- USAC's very impressive revenue growth greatly exceeded the industry average of 10.6%. Since the same quarter one year prior, revenues leaped by 54.0%. This growth in revenue appears to have trickled down to the company's bottom line, improving the earnings per share.
- You can view the full USA Compression Partners Ratings Report.
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