Strategic Global Income Fund, Inc. (the "Fund") (NYSE: SGL) is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company seeking a high level of current income as a primary objective and capital appreciation as a secondary objective through investments in US and foreign debt securities. Fund Commentary for the first quarter of 2014 from UBS Global Asset Management (Americas) Inc. (“UBS Global AM”), the Fund’s investment advisor. Market Review Despite expectations for continued headwinds, the global fixed income market generated positive results during the first quarter. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell from 3.04% to 2.73% over the first three months of the year due to some disappointing economic data and several flights to quality. At its meetings in January and March 2014, the Federal Reserve Board (the "Fed") said it would further taper its asset purchases, in each case paring its purchases a total of $10 billion a month. Beginning in April, the Fed said it would purchase a total of $55 billion a month ($25 billion per month of agency mortgage-backed securities and $30 billion per month of longer-term Treasuries). At its meeting in March, the US central bank also backed off its previous statement that raising short-term interest rates could be tied to a 6.5% unemployment rate. In its official statement, the Fed said "This assessment [of when to raise rates] will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments." All told, global government bond markets gained 2.66% over the quarter, as measured by the Citigroup World Government Bond Index. Most global bond markets were stronger during the quarter, with the exception of Canada. From a currency perspective, the Australian dollar and Japanese yen rallied against US dollar, as did the euro, albeit to a modest extent. Elsewhere, the Canadian dollar was weaker over the quarter.
Sector OverviewMost spread sectors 1 generated positive returns during the first quarter. Supporting the spread sectors were declining long-term yields, continued economic growth, modest inflation and overall solid demand from investors looking to generate incremental yield. As was the case in 2013, one of the best performing sectors during the first quarter was high yield debt. This occurred amid a backdrop of continued positive corporate fundamentals and very low defaults. Investment grade corporate debt also posted solid results as their spreads 2 narrowed over the quarter. Within securitized debt, agency residential mortgage-backed securities ("MBS"), asset-backed securities ("ABS") and commercial mortgage-backed securities ("CMBS") all generated modest gains during the first quarter. After a challenging start, the emerging markets debt asset class rallied and generated solid results for the first quarter. Risk aversion was elevated at times in January against a backdrop of concerns regarding global growth. While there was no one catalyst, the asset class then rallied sharply in February. Despite a number of headline risks, including Russia's actions in Ukraine, the asset class continued to move higher in March. As measured by the JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Global (EMBI Global), US dollar-denominated debt posted a 3.48% return over the three months, whereas local currency emerging markets debt, as measured by the JP Morgan Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets Global Diversified (GBI-EM Global Diversified), posted a 1.90% return during the same time period. Performance Review For the first quarter of 2014, the Fund posted a net asset value total return of 1.80% and a market price total return of 3.77%. On a net asset value total return basis, the Fund underperformed its benchmark, the Strategic Global Benchmark (the “Index”), 3 which returned 2.94% over the quarter. As of March 31, 2014, the Fund's duration was 4.0 years, versus 6.84 years for the Index. Both security selection and asset allocation detracted from performance during the first quarter. The Fund's security selection of inflation-linked bonds (both US dollar and emerging market "linkers") and Treasury securities were negative for performance. The Fund's selection of agency mortgage-backed securities ("MBS") also detracted from results.
Conversely, security selection of investment grade corporate bonds was beneficial. From an asset allocation perspective, the Fund's more limited exposure to non-US dollar interest rate markets was a negative for performance. In particular, an underweight to euro-denominated debt was a drag on results. On the upside, out-of-benchmark allocations to commercial mortgage-backed securities ("CMBS") and collateralized debt obligations ("CDO") were rewarded.The Fund tactically adjusted its duration over the period, but generally remained shorter than that of the benchmark. This detracted from performance as rates largely declined during the first quarter. From a currency perspective, an underweight position in the Japanese yen detracted from performance as the currency strengthened relative to the US dollar while an out-of-index allocation to certain emerging market currencies was rewarded. From an emerging markets debt perspective, exposure to Argentinian US dollar-denominated debt performed strongly, particularly in March. On the other hand, an underweight allocation to US dollar-denominated Venezuelan debt added to results in January but detracted later in the period following strong market performance in February and March. Lastly, while the Fund maintained an underweight allocation to Russian debt, its exposure to local Russian government debt slightly detracted from results. Outlook Despite experiencing headwinds from severe winter weather, we believe the US economy has enough momentum to continue expanding and will accelerate somewhat as the year progresses. Overseas, a modest economic recovery in Europe is occurring, although deflation remains a concern. Elsewhere, growth in China has decelerated, which could negatively impact the global economy. Turning to the fixed income market, regardless of some weaker than expected economic data and geopolitical issues, the Fed appears on track to continue paring its monthly asset purchases and potentially ending this phase of quantitative easing during the fourth quarter of 2014. While the market has been rather fixated on when the Fed will move to raise rates, we do not see this occurring until sometime in 2015. However, the market may begin to "price in" rising rates prior to the Fed taking action. We maintain our generally positive outlook for the spread sectors. US credit fundamentals continue to be strong and defaults should remain well below their historical average. That being said, spreads in the US are significantly tighter than they were during the financial crisis. As such, their returns will likely be less robust in 2014. Given relatively wider spreads, we see select opportunities in euro-denominated credit.
We maintain a cautious near-term outlook for the emerging markets asset class. Improving growth in developing countries could have a positive impact on emerging market exports. However, this has yet to occur. While certain geopolitical issues have been priced into the market, in our view, we expect to see continued periods of elevated volatility. That being said, the potential impact of higher rates in the US could be somewhat more muted in 2014 versus last year, as the Federal Reserve has indicated it will continue to taper its asset purchases. Within the asset class, we feel US dollar-denominated debt should outperform local debt for the year as a whole.
|Portfolio statistics as of March 31, 20144|
|Top ten countries (bond holdings only)5||Percentage of net assets|
|Top ten currency exposures (includes all securities and otherinstruments)||Percentage of net assets|
|United States Dollar||70.1%|
|Credit quality6||Percentage of net assets|
|CCC and Below||0.8|
|Cash and other assets, less liabilities||1.4|
|Net asset value per share9||$10.48|
|Market price per share9||$9.21|
|NAV distribution rate (DR)9||6.02%|
|Market distribution rate (DR)9||6.85%|
|Weighted average maturity||8.2 yrs|
Disclaimers Regarding Fund Commentary - The Fund Commentary is intended to assist shareholders in understanding how the Fund performed during the period noted. Views and opinions were current as of the date of this press release. They are not guarantees of performance or investment results and should not be taken as investment advice. Investment decisions reflect a variety of factors, and the Fund and UBS Global AM reserve the right to change views about individual securities, sectors and markets at any time. As a result, the views expressed should not be relied upon as a forecast of the Fund’s future investment intent.Past performance does not predict future performance. The return and value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor's shares, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Any Fund net asset value ("NAV") returns cited in a Fund Commentary assume, for illustration only, that dividends and other distributions, if any, were reinvested at the NAV on the payable dates. Any Fund market price returns cited in a Fund Commentary assume that all dividends and other distributions, if any, were reinvested at prices obtained under the Fund's Dividend Reinvestment Plan. Returns for periods of less than one year have not been annualized. Returns do not reflect the deduction of taxes that a shareholder would pay on Fund dividends and other distributions, if any, or on the sale of Fund shares. Investing in the Fund entails specific risks, such as interest rate, credit and the risks associated with investing in the securities of non-US issuers, including those located in emerging market countries. The value of the Fund's investments in foreign securities may fall due to adverse political, social and economic developments abroad and due to decreases in foreign currency values relative to the US dollar. Further detailed information regarding the Fund, including a discussion of principal objectives, principal investment strategies and principal risks, may be found in the fund overview located at http://www.ubs.com/closedendfundsinfo . You may also request copies of the fund overview by calling the Closed-End Funds Desk at 888-793 8637. ©UBS 2014. All rights reserved.
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