How to Trade AIG, Tenet Health and 4 Others Reporting Earnings Today

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Today we crunch the numbers on six companies that report their quarterly earnings after the closing bell.

The profiles below provide trading guidelines for the stocks in the two "crunching the numbers" tables that follow.


American International Group (AIG) ($52.35), up 2.5% year-to-date. Analysts expect the taxpayer-bailed-out insurance giant to report earnings of $1.08 per share after the closing bell today. The stock set a new 2014 intraday high at $53.29 on Friday, then closed below Thursday's low at $52.54. That is a "key reversal," given lower closes today and tomorrow. The stock has tested its 200-day simple moving average several times as support since Jan. 27. The 200-day ended last week at $49.45.

The weekly chart is positive, with its five-week modified moving average at $50.72. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $49.99 and $49.75, with quarterly and monthly risky levels at $54.37 and $54.67.

Leapfrog Enterprises (LF) ($6.96), down 12.3% year-to-date. Analysts expect the maker of educational toys and games for preschool to eighth-grade children to report an EPS loss of 20 cents after the closing bell today. The stock traded as low as $6.10 on Feb. 13, then as high as $7.87 on March 7. It has been below its 200-day SMA at $8.42 since Oct. 8.

The weekly chart is negative, with its five-week MMA at $7.07. Weekly and monthly value levels are $6.56 and $5.96, with quarterly and semiannual risky levels at $9.12 and $10.31.

Regal Beloit (RBC) ($75.25), up 2.1% year-to-date. Analysts expect the maker of electrical motors to report EPS of $1.03 after the closing bell today. The stock set its 2014 high at $80.41 on Jan. 16, then traded as low as $69.65 on Feb. 11, which was a test of the 200-day SMA, which is now $71.52.

The weekly chart is positive with its five-week MMA at $73.77. The stock held its 200-week SMA in June and Sept 2013, with this average now at $66.26. A weekly value level is $70.77, with a quarterly pivot at $75.93 and semiannual and annual risky levels at $78.12 and $79.11.

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) ($61.15), down 1.7% year-to-date. Analysts expect the maker of lawn and garden care products to report EPS of $1.94 after the closing bell today. The stock set an all-time intraday high at $63.96 on April 2, then traded as low as $57.24 on April 15, with its 200-day SMA at $57.65.

The weekly chart is positive, with its five-week MMA at $60.12. The stock crossed above its 200-week SMA in June 2013, with this average now at $49.93. Semiannual value levels are $60.93 and $60.10, with a weekly pivot at $61.15 and a monthly risky level at $66.12.

Tenet Health (THC) ($45.41), up 7.8% year-to-date. Analysts expect the health care services company to report an EPS loss of 15 cents after the closing bell today. The stock set its 2014 intraday high at $48.70 on Feb. 24, then traded as low as $37.95 on April 17, and has been above its 200-day SMA at $42.96 since April 25.

The weekly chart is positive, with its five-week MMA at $43.00. The stock has been above its 200-week SMA since August 2013, with this average now at $29.40. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $42.07 and $36.93, with monthly and quarterly risky levels at $49.12 and $62.82.

Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) ($103.32), up 16.4% year-to-date. Analysts expect the owner of office buildings and retail properties to report EPS of $1.30 after the closing bell today. The REIT set a multiyear intraday high at $104.05 on Friday, and the stock has been above its 200-day SMA since Oct. 10, 2013, with this average now at $90.61.

The weekly chart is positive but overbought, with its five-week MMA at $99.34. The stock has been above its 200-week SMA since September 2013, with this average now at $85.15. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $100.68 and $96.91, with monthly and semiannual risky levels at $105.75 and $117.63.

Your investment policy among these stocks depends on whether you are a buyer on weakness or a seller of strength. We advocate using a GTC (good until canceled) limit order to buy weakness to a value level or to sell strength to a risky level.


Crunching the Numbers With Richard Suttmeier: Moving Averages & Stochastics

This table provides the technical status for the stocks profiled in today's report.

There are five columns with moving average titles: Five-Week Modified Moving Average, 21-Day Simple Moving Average, 50-Day Simple Moving Average, 200-Day Simple Moving Average and the 200-Week Simple Moving Average.

The column labeled 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics shows the pattern on each weekly chart with readings from Oversold, Rising, Overbought, Declining or Flat.

Interpretations: Stocks below a moving average are listed in red.

Five-Week Modified Moving Average (MMA) is one of two indicators that define whether a weekly chart profile is positive, neutral or negative. The other is the status of the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.

A stock with a positive technical rating is above its five-week MMA with rising or overbought stochastics.

A stock with a negative technical rating is below its five-week MMA with declining or oversold stochastics.

A stock with a neutral technical rating has a profile that is not positive or negative.

The 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is considered a long-term technical support or resistance and as a "reversion to the mean" over a rolling three- to five-year horizon. (Even Apple declined to its 200-week SMA in June 2013.)

The 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a short-term technical support or resistance used by many hedge fund traders to adjust positions. A stock above its 21-day SMA will likely move higher over a rolling three- to five-day horizon and vice versa.

The 50-Day Simple Moving Average is also a technical support or resistance used by many strategists and commentators in financial TV.

The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is another technical support or resistance, and I consider this level as a shorter-term "reversion to the mean" over a rolling six- to 12-month horizon. (Even Apple tested or crossed its 200-day SMA in nine of the last 10 years.)


Crunching the Numbers With Richard Suttmeier: Earnings & Where to Buy & Where to Sell

This table presents the EPS estimates including date and before or after the close, and where to buy on weakness and where to sell on strength.

EPS Date is the day the company reports their quarterly results.

EPS Estimate is the earnings per share estimate from Wall Street analysts.

Value Levels, Pivots and Risky Levels are calculated based upon the last nine weekly closes (W), nine monthly closes (M), nine quarterly closes (Q), nine semiannual closes (S) and nine annual closes (A). I have one column for pivots, which is a magnet for the period shown. The columns to the left of the pivots are first and second value levels. The columns to the right of the pivots are first and second risky levels.

Investors who wish to buy a stock should use a good-until-canceled GTC limit order to buy weakness to a value level. Investors who want to sell a stock should use a GTC limit order to sell strength to a risky level.

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At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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