NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Doug Kass of Seabreeze Partners is known for his accurate stock market calls and keen insights into the economy, which he shares with RealMoney Pro readers in his daily trading diary.
Among the posts this past week were items about whether the economy is in a recession and signs of a market topping process.
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The U.S. Economy Is Not in a Recession
Originally published on Thursday, May 1, at 12:14 p.m. EDT.
I have respectfully (and strongly) disagreed with Roger Arnold on his assertion that the U.S. economy is in recession on Columnist Conversation.
All the high-frequency economic data point to an above-2.5% second-quarter 2014 real GDP print.
Another example today is the manufacturing ISM, which came in at 54.9, slightly better than 54.3 expectations and above the March number of 53.7.
The beat was driven almost entirely by the employment gauge, which was up from 51.1 to 54.7. New orders were flat, production was basically flat, inventories inched up very slightly, and backlogs declined from 57.5 to 55.5.
Pricing pressures abated a bit with the prices paid index falling from 59.0 to 56.5. Finally, exports and imports both rose.
Importantly, the report shows that 17 of 18 industries reported growth in April with the quotes from various respondents being generally positive.
Overall this report points to continued growth, with no major acceleration or deceleration but a decent underpinning with an improving job market.
In no way does this indicate that the domestic economy is in recession.