Exxon, Goldcorp, Royal Gold: How to Trade Thursday's Earnings Reports

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Today we crunch the numbers on 11 companies that report quarterly earnings before the opening bell Thursday.

Rather than profile each stock individually, I will crunch the numbers in the tables below for you. (See pages 2 and 3 for the tables.)

The biggest year-to-date gainer is Royal Gold (RGLD) ($66.69), up 45%. Analysts expect the company to report earnings per share of 23 cents before the opening bell on Thursday. The acquisition and manager of precious metals royalties traded to its 2014 high at $72.90 on March 14, three days before the 2014 high for Comex gold, then the stock traded as low as $62.02 on March 27. The high for gold was $1392.6 an ounce.

The weekly chart for Royal Gold is neutral with the five-week modified moving average at $65.38 and the 200-week simple moving average at $62.76. The 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic is declining, so a close this week below $65.38 would shift the weekly chart to negative. Weekly and monthly value levels are $64.44 and $58.48, respectively, with a quarterly pivot at $66.48 and annual and semiannual risky levels at $67.13 and $69.05, respectively.

The second best year-to-date gainer is Mylan (MYL) ($50.88), up 17%. Analysts expect the maker of generic drugs to report EPS of 63 cents before the opening bell on Thursday. Mylan traded to an all-time intraday high at $57.52 on March 4, but its parabolic bubble then popped with a trade as low as $44.74 on April 15.

The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $49.77. Quarterly and weekly value levels are $45.97 and $45.75, respectively, with a monthly risky level at $54.78.

In third place to the upside year-to-date is Goldcorp (GG)($24.85), up 15%. Analysts expect the gold miner to report EPS of 14 cents before the opening bell on Thursday. Like Royal Gold, Goldcorp traded to its 2014 high on March 14. Goldcorp's high was $29.27. Then the stock slumped as low as $23.14 on April 21.

The weekly chart stays negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $25.05. Monthly and quarterly value levels are $21.96 and $16.08, respectively, with a weekly pivot at $24.14 and semiannual risky levels at $32.82 and $41.33.

The biggest year-to-date loser is Blue Nile (NILE) ($34.74), down 26%. Analysts expect the online retailer of diamonds and fine jewelry to report EPS of 7 cents before the opening bell on Thursday. The stock set a 52-week intraday high at $49.13 on Dec. 30 then traded as low as $32.60 on Feb. 14.

The weekly chart stays negative but oversold given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $35.16. A semiannual value level is $23.15 with a weekly pivot at $34.48 and monthly and quarterly risky levels at $40.97 and $41.48, respectively.

Another double-digit year-to-date loser is MasterCard (MA) ($72.03), down 14%. Analysts' expect the credit card company to report EPS of 72 cents before the opening bell on Thursday. The stock set an all-time intraday high at $84.74 on Jan. 10 then traded as low as $68.68 as the market bubble popped. The stock is on the cusp of its 200-day SMA at $72.28.

The weekly chart is neutral with its five-week MMA at $73.17 with rising stochastics. Weekly and semiannual value levels are $68.12 and $64.93, respectively, with a semiannual pivot at $69.06 and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $86.90 and $90.52, respectively.

One more double-digit year-to-date loser is Cigna Corp (CI) ($77.85), down 11%. Analysts expect the provider of health care benefits products and services to report EPS of $1.53 before the opening bell on Thursday. The stock set an all-time intraday high at $90.63 on Jan. 10 then traded as low as $73.47 as the bubble popped. The stock is below its 200-day SMA at $80.86.

The weekly chart is negative with its five-week MMA at $78.79. Semiannual value levels are $77.19 and $76.77 with a weekly pivot at $78.08 and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $86.59 and $86.80, respectively.

Your investment policy among these stocks depends on whether or not you are a buyer on weakness or a seller of strength. We advocate using a good 'til canceled limit order to buy weakness to a value level or to sell strength to a risky level.

Crunching the Numbers With Richard Suttmeier: Moving Averages & Stochastics

This table provides the technical status for the stocks profiled in today's report.

There are five columns with moving average titles: Five-Week Modified Moving Average; 21-Day Simple Moving Average; 50-Day Simple Moving Average; 200-Day Simple Moving Average; and the 200-Week Simple Moving Average.

The column labeled 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics shows the pattern on each weekly chart with a reading of oversold, rising, overbought, declining or flat.

Interpretations: Stocks below a moving average are listed in red.

Five-Week Modified Moving Average (MMA) is one of two indicators that define whether a weekly chart profile is positive, neutral or negative. The other is the status of the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.

A stock with a positive technical rating is above its five-week MMA with rising or overbought stochastics.

A stock with a negative technical rating is below its five-week MMA with declining or oversold stochastics.

A stock with a neutral technical rating has a profile that is not positive or negative.

The 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is considered a long-term technical support or resistance level and as a "reversion to the mean" over a rolling three- to five-year horizon. (Even Apple (AAPL) declined to its 200-week SMA in June 2013.)

The 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a short-term technical support or resistance used by many hedge fund traders to adjust positions. A stock above its 21-day SMA will likely move higher over a rolling three- to five-day horizon and vice versa.

The 50-Day Simple Moving Average is also a technical support or resistance used by many strategists and commentators in financial TV.

The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is another technical support or resistance level, and I consider this level as a shorter-term "reversion to the mean" over a rolling six- to 12-month horizon. (Even Apple tested or crossed its 200-day SMA in nine of the last 10 years.)

Crunching the Numbers With Richard Suttmeier: Earnings & Where to Buy & Where to Sell

This table presents the EPS estimates including date and before or after the close, and where to buy on weakness and where to sell on strength.

"EPS Date" is the day the company reports its quarterly results.

"EPS Estimate" is the EPS estimate from Wall Street analysts.

Value Levels, Pivots and Risky Levels are calculated based upon the last nine weekly closes (W), nine monthly closes (M), nine quarterly closes (Q), nine semiannual closes (S) and nine annual closes (A). I have one column for pivots, which is a magnet for the period shown. The columns to the left of the pivots are first and second value levels. The columns to the right of the pivots are first and second risky levels.

Investors who wish to buy a stock should use a good-'til-canceled limit order to buy weakness to a value level. Investors who want to sell a stock should use a GTC limit order to sell strength to a risky level.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com. He has been a professional in the U.S. Capital Markets since 1972, transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world.

Suttmeier has an engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science degree from Brooklyn Poly. He began his career in the financial services industry in 1972 trading U.S. Treasury securities in the primary dealer community. He became the first long bond trader for Bache in 1978, and formed the Government Bond Department at LF Rothschild in 1981, helping establish that firm as a primary dealer in 1986. This experience gives him the insights to be an expert on monetary policy, which he features in his newsletters, and market commentary.

Suttmeier's industry licenses include, Series 7 and Registered Principal (Series 24). He has been the Chief Market Strategist for ValuEngine.com since 2008 and often appears on financial TV.

Click here for details on Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" investment strategy.

Richard Suttmeier can be reached at RSuttmeier@Gmail.com

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