What Goldman Sachs Thinks About Apple Earnings

Updated from 10:57 a.m. to include fiscal 2014 to 2016 estimates.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Apple (AAPL) is set to report fiscal second-quarter earnings after the close. So naturally, investors want to know what Wall Street's most important bank, Goldman Sachs (GS) thinks, right?

Right after Morgan Stanley and analyst Katy Huberty, Goldman Sachs analyst Bill Shope is the most influential Apple analyst on Wall Street. He goes second in the queue when asking questions on Apple earnings call, and given the status of Goldman Sachs on Wall Street (and in the world), people naturally want to hear what he has to say.

Shope, who rates Apple a "buy" with a $610 price target, is expecting Apple to generate $43.88 billion in revenue for the quarter, earning $10.42 a share, up from $43.85 billion and $10.30 a share in a prior view, due to Apple's large buyback in February. For the June quarter, Shope expects $37.5 billion in revenue, and $8.92 a share in earnings. Shope is also expecting to hear an update on Apple's buyback and dividend policies, with an increase of $30 billion to $35 billion for share buybacks, and an additional 10% to 15% earmarked for dividends.

Here are his unit estimates for the March quarter:

iPhone: 39 million
iPad: 18.8 million
Mac: 3.9 million
iPod: 3 million

"The key risk for the earnings release is a below-consensus June quarter guide, which would only partially be countered by the larger capital allocation program," Shope wrote in a note to clients. "With that said, we believe this risk is less pronounced than the deterioration we saw at this stage of the 2013 product cycle for three reasons: 1) we don't expect this weakness to be coupled with gross margin erosion; 2) the China Mobile ramp is expected to gain momentum through 2014; and 3) revised carrier policies in 2013 artificially shifted some demand forward."

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