S&P, Nasdaq, Russell on 6-Day Win Streak

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The stock market finished to the upside on Tuesday. For the sixth consecutive day the S&P 500, the Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000 surged ahead.

The DJIA was also up, making it five out of six days to the upside. Since those huge down days of April 10-11, the markets have recouped all of their losses.

The Nasdaq gained 39.91 points on Tuesday to close at 4161.45, while the DJIA gained 65.12 points to close at 16514.37. The Russell 2000 gained 13.30 to close at 1155.61 and the S&P 500 gained 7.66 to close at 1879.55.

The Nasdaq and Russell 2000 have now followed the DJIA and the S&P 500 into Trend Bullish territory. Trend Bullish is a three-month or longer time frame, according to my internal algorithm process.

It was a short two weeks ago that all the indexes entered Trend Bearish territory. They did not stay there very long. It begs the question, how long will the indexes now stay in Trend Bullish territory? It may not be very long. This stock market in 2014 has been volatile. It has no memory from day to day or week to week.

The one issue that has consistently been at the forefront of the up days in 2014 has been the volume. Volume is a constant issue that matters to me. The volume over the last six trading days has been less and less every day. As a matter of fact, Monday was the second-lowest volume day of the year in the S&P 500 Trust Series ETF (SPY).

A stock market that has a very wide daily trading range between its buy trade and sell trade and that approaches its sell trade level on very low volume, signals extreme risk, according to my process. If you are a trader and are chasing this market to the upside, you are taking on some serious risk.

This has been a classic short hedge fund covering at the highs. They are the same hedge funds that were shorting the market two weeks ago at the lows and are now covering at the highs -- a very typical response for which they are notorious. When they are finished covering, which should be any day now, I expect to see this market have a sizable downside move.

I have been sitting on the sidelines the last few days as this low volume move to the upside plays out. I did add one new position today. I purchased a small position in the ProShares Ultra VIX Short Term Futures ETF (UVXY) as a downside hedge. I am fully aware that I may be early. I will add to the position as necessary.

At the time of publication the author was long UVXY.

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.

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