Load Up on Apple Stock as Android Killer Looms

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Over the last couple years, I made the decision to focus on writing about companies rather than stocks.

In the shell of a frank nut, I don't feel comfortable making buy/sell recommendations. I prefer to create ongoing narratives around a handful of companies and spaces, allowing one article to flow to the next. I change my mind, test theories and wonder out loud in front of you.

With that in mind, outside of a handful of exceptions (like presciently calling Pandora (P) every step of the way to nailing Best Buy (BBY)), I tend to stay away from saying buy or sell this or that stock. Ultimately, case-by-case circumstances dictate what those decisions will/need to be so who am I to make blanket recommendations (rhetorical question w/o the question mark) ...

However, if there was ever going to be a time to say sell your house, squat in a foreclosure, pull your kids out of private school, loan them out for summer farm work and eat Top Ramen so you can load up on a stock, it would come on an Apple (AAPL) post-earnings implosion. In fact, I'd be tempted to buy on relatively modest weakness or a continuation of the absurd status quo of underperforming stagnation.

But, as the stock jockeys like to say, "back up the truck" if AAPL moves below $500 again.

After the click to Page Two, one plausible scenario that could play itself out after Apple reports Wednesday afternoon ... 

Apple "disappoints" because it misses one or more of the numbers the morons who populate the Wall Street analyst community pulled from thin air as the standards we idiotically accept for the company's most recent quarter.

Like Apple "only" generated $42.5 billion in revenue and "missed" estimates on, say, something like 3.7 million, 19 million and 37 million Macs, iPads and iPhones sold. Or Apple's gross margin misses -- by like a tenth of a percent -- the wholly uniformed number these Wall Street hacks came together and agreed on.

You know how it would go down, the Apple can't innovate and it desperately needs a new product crowd would spew new life as if the "miss" somehow substantiates their shallow claims. Apple's critics would use these lines to say see ... we told you so. They would hold up the "lackluster," "subpar" and "disappointing" quarter as proof they're right and Apple's screwed.

And this type of talk will send the stock down ... again.

A dive into the high $400s, even if temporary, would be entirely possible. At that point, investors should really come together and take advantage of the lowest levels we'll see Apple stock at for a long time. One man's idiocy triggers another's euphoria and subsequent opportunity.

Apple underperforms, dips and dives on false notions of disappointment because we put more credence in Wall Street analyst estimates and the wisdom of a foolish crowd than we do Apple's historical and present-day dominance. This phenomenon makes us all just a little bit dumber.

Remember ... Apple has earned the luxury to disrupt and destroy when it's ready. The recent lull in Apple's unintentional way of instantly gratifying a financial and tech media that lives vicariously through it ought to make us more, not less, optimistic about Apple's prospects . Because, even though Apple's next iPhone doesn't need to be revolutionary, it will be. That's the way Apple rolls. But it doesn't roll in and reconfigure markets it created and subsequently dominated a moment too soon. It takes its time and does it right.

Consider the forthcoming iPhone 6 a Macbook on performance enhancing drugs.

By that I mean, over the last few years, Apple's Macbook has performed incredibly well. As PC sales languish, Mac gains marketshare and controls mindshare. Remarkable stuff. And really a testament to Apple's ability to build out the experience -- over time -- that encapsulates its ever-evolving hardware.

There's no rush like at Microsoft (MSFT) or Android's lame hardware partners. Haste not only makes waste but crappy products that either never catch on or, because they play the short-sighted marketshare game, can't withstand the test of time.

So the raw Macbook numbers and consumer uptake might not look impressive -- at least relative to what we have seen with iPod, iPhone and iPad -- but we're talking about $1,500 to $3,000 pieces of hardware. The emergence of these products will not look quite as dramatic as it has (and does) with the aforementioned less expensive items.

However, the dynamic that envelopes the process by which Apple further infiltrates the mainstream and goes all halo effect on us looks similar regardless of the item. MacBooks gain traction much the same way iPhones do. That's instructive. And it's a good analogy to support the notion that the forthcoming iPhone 6 will put the hurt on Android.

Compare a 10-year old Macbook to what Apple puts out today. Over that span, you see an absolutely massive difference between iterations. However, from refresh to refresh, Apple made "only" incremental improvements. But these increments add up to something special.

Call it revolutionary evolution that, along the way, converts people to Apple products. Holdouts see the Macbook evolve, getting better over time and, at some point, determine it's time to, at the very least, investigate switching.

Something similar's happening with iPhone. It looks a lot different than the one Steve Jobs introduced more than seven years ago. At a basic level, it's an extension of the iPod. And it keeps getting incrementally better. Now Apple has (reportedly) decided it's time to answer a call the consumer market for smartphones appears to have made for a larger screen size.

With that -- and whatever else Apple has planned to accompany it -- there's no reason for these holdouts to hold out any longer. Google (GOOG) and anybody else with an interest in how Android performs, particularly in the United States, should be absolutely terrified. You can only trot out crap for so long and claim you're "competing" with Apple.

In all reality, Apple's competing with nobody other than itself. It owns complete control over the pace and look of the smartphone (and tablet) space. What the other guys do amounts to little more than filler for the impatient media between what Apple does.

Once iPhone 6 comes out, Apple changes the game yet again. It will be the phone of choice for waves of upgrading and new smartphone customers. It will be also be the catalyst that renders any downside we might see from Apple stock this week silly in the rearview mirror of 2014's year end.

--Written by Rocco Pendola in Santa Monica, Calif.

Rocco Pendola is a full-time columnist for TheStreet. He lives in Santa Monica. Disclosure: TheStreet's editorial policy prohibits staff editors, reporters and analysts from holding positions in any individual stocks.

More from Opinion

2 More Reasons to Sell All Your Stocks and Run Away

2 More Reasons to Sell All Your Stocks and Run Away

Sean Hannity's Link to Trump Lawyer Raises Questions: Doug Kass Insider

Sean Hannity's Link to Trump Lawyer Raises Questions: Doug Kass Insider

Netflix Blowout Earnings Remind Investors of One Thing: This Company Is a Beast

Netflix Blowout Earnings Remind Investors of One Thing: This Company Is a Beast

The Worst Stock Market Plunge in Your Lifetime Is Coming: Jim Rogers

The Worst Stock Market Plunge in Your Lifetime Is Coming: Jim Rogers

Investing in Penny Stocks Is Still One of the Dumbest Moves on Wall Street

Investing in Penny Stocks Is Still One of the Dumbest Moves on Wall Street