Jim Cramer: We're Still in the Tech Woods

NEW YORK (Real Money) -- We are not out of the woods as long as we are hearing about valuations for companies such as Airbnb at $10 billion that aren't being laughed at or scorned upon. When Dropbox is being valued comfortably at $10 billion on the basis of its 200 million users, this market will not be appeased, especially when Box, a rival more centered on enterprise that can easily move into the consumer market, is now being talked about at "only" $3 billion (although I am sure it is higher this red-hot minute).

These are the signs that we have yet to learn from the froth that has engulfed Concur (CNQR) and FireEye (FEYE) to Celgene (CELG) and Gilead (GILD) and everything in between. These are why the Amber Roads and Borderfrees and A10s are always going to be considered like the also-rans of the years 1999 to 2000, until they go bust, get bought or get real profitable. It is why you need to beware of headlines that say "Tech Fall Isn't Seen as Sign of Trouble," because almost everyone knows that the tech fall has been so precipitous and lurking -- seen Google (GOOGL), anyone? -- that we are only one more big miss and one more ugly deal away from taking down a good portion of the S&P 500.

For the longest time, I was willing to overlook the froth, thinking it could be contained. But people run diversified portfolios, and they have portions of their diversified portfolios that have had stunning declines. You can't be hidden 100% in utilities and Snap-On (SNA). You just don't own "the right ones" and have none of the "wrong ones."

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