These Companies Hit With Volatile Reaction After Earnings

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The companies we profiled before they reported earnings last week performed in choppy trading patterns after their reports.

Today we crunch the numbers on 11 stocks -- six have traded higher while five traded lower. Five missed their earnings per share estimates, four beat and two matched.

We crunched the numbers to help you decide if and when to invest. See today's 'Crunching the Numbers' table following these profiles.

Adobe Systems (ADBE) ($65.24 vs. $67.19, down 2.9% since March 14): Reported earnings after the closing bell on March 18 and beat analysts' earnings per share estimates by 4 cents earning 16 cent a share. The stock traded as high as $69.08 on March 20 then traded as low as $64.77 on Monday nearly testing its 50-day simple moving average at $64.68. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week modified moving average at $65.59. The quarterly value level remains at $60.08 with its monthly risky level at $68.28 which was tested after the earnings report was released.

Conagra Foods (CAG) ($30.11 vs. $29.56, up 1.9% since March 17): Reported earnings before the opening bell on March 20 and beat analysts' EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 62 cent a share. The stock traded as high as $30.34 since reporting still below its 50-day SMA at $30.54. The weekly chart shifts to positive given a close this week above its five-week MMA at $30.15. Monthly and weekly value levels are $28.95 and $26.79 with annual and semiannual risky levels at $32.21 and $33.81.

Darden Restaurants (DRI) ($50.68 vs. $49.70, up 2% since March 17): Reported earnings before the opening bell on March 21 and matched analysts' EPS estimates earning 82 cent a share. The stock moved back above its 200-day SMA at $50.25 on March 21 after this report. The weekly chart shifts to positive given a close this week above its five-week MMA at $50.34. Weekly and annual value levels are $49.60 and $44.89 with a monthly pivot at $50.04 and annual and quarterly risky levels at $52.59 and $56.60.

FedEx (FDX) ($134.95 vs. $136.76, down 1.3% since March 14): Reported earnings before the opening bell on March 19 and missed analysts' EPS estimates by 28 cents earning $1.23 a share. The stock traded as high as $141.17 in reaction to this report but then faded to as low as $133.39 as of 11:15 AM this morning, below its 50-day SMA at $136.61, but testing our semiannual value level at $133.40. The weekly chart needs to close this week above its five-week MMA at $135.78 to stay positive. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are $133.40 and $129.45 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $135.42 and $154.96.

General Mills (GIS) ($50.72 vs. $49.77, up 1.9% since March 14): Reported earnings before the opening bell on March 19 and missed analysts' EPS estimates by 1 cent earning 62 cents a share. The stock traded as high as $51.70 post-earnings on March 21. The weekly chart remains positive with its five-week MMA at $50.07. A quarterly value level is $49.33 with a monthly pivot at $51.04 and annual risky levels at $52.91 and $53.44.

Herman Miller (MLHR) ($31.55 vs. $28.85, up 9.4% since March 14): Reported earnings after the closing bell on March 19 and matched analysts' EPS earning 34 cents a share. The stock spiked to as high as $32.32 on March 20 in reaction to this report. The weekly chart remains positive with its five-week MMA at $29.63. Monthly and semiannual value levels are $30.47 and $29.64 with a quarterly pivot at $31.63 and semiannual risky level at $31.99 which was tested at the high.

Nike (NKE) ($74.86 vs. $78.32, down 4.4% since March 17): Reported earnings after the closing bell on March 20 and beat analysts' EPS estimates by 3 cents earning 76 cents a share. The stock opened lower on March 21 and has traded as low as $74.08 Tuesday morning as of 11:15 a.m. ET, and is below its 50-day SMA at $75.54. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $76.16. My quarterly value level is $58.15 with weekly and monthly risky levels at $80.26 and $83.29.

Oracle Corp (ORCL) ($38.18 vs. $37.60, up 1.5% since March 14): Reported earnings after the closing bell on March 18 and missed analysts' EPS estimates by 3 cents earning 64 cents a share. The stock traded like a yo-yo on March 19 from a day's low at $37.40 and a day's high at $38.96 and is now above its 50-day SMA at $37.97. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $37.84. My annual value level is $35.77 with semiannual pivots at $38.04 and $38.10, and quarterly and monthly risky levels at $40.21 and $40.30. Having two semiannual pivots within the range explains this volatility.

Shoe Carnival (SCVL) ($23.53 vs. $26.08, down 9.8% since March 17): Reported earnings after the closing bell on March 20 and missed analysts' EPS estimates by a penny earning 3 cents a share. The stock traded as high as $26.20 in reaction to earnings failing at its 200-day SMA at $26.15 then fell like a bungee to as low as $23.00 on March 24, a new 2014 low. The weekly chart shifts to negative given a close this week below its five-week MMA at $25.16. An annual value level is $16.86 with an annual pivot at $24.20 and weekly and semiannual risky levels at $26.35 and $29.22.

Tiffany (TIF) ($87.23 vs. $92.31, down 5.5% since March 17): Reported earnings before the opening bell on March 21 and missed analysts' EPS estimates by 5 cents earning $1.47 a share. The stock traded as high as $93.85 in reaction to earnings then plunged to as low as $86.38 this morning as of 11:15 AM, and is below its 50-day SMA at $88.75. The weekly chart shifts to negative on a close this week below its five-week MMA at $89.57. Annual and quarterly value levels are $78.01 and $77.26 with semiannual and weekly risky levels at $93.37 and $96.47. The high was a failed test of the semiannual risky level at $93.37.

Vera Bradley (VRA) ($28.79 vs. $26.48, up 8.7% since March 14): Reported earnings before the opening bell on March 19 and beat analysts' EPS estimates by 2 cents earning 48 cents a share. This stock traded as low as $25.61 in reaction to earnings then popped to as high as $29.34 on March 20. The weekly chart remains positive but overbought with its five-week MMA at $26.79. Monthly and annual value levels are $25.62 and $24.86 with a weekly pivot at $28.41 and semiannual risky levels at $43.08 and $48.61.

Crunching the Numbers with Richard Suttmeier

There are five columns with moving average titles: Five-Week Modified Moving Average, 21-Day Simple Moving Average, 50-Day Simple Moving Average, 200-Day Simple Moving Average and the 200-Week Simple Moving Average.

The column labeled 12x3x3 Weekly Slow Stochastics shows the pattern on each weekly chart with readings from Oversold, Rising, Overbought, Declining or Flat.

Interpretations: (stocks below a moving average listed in Red are below that moving average)

Five-Week Modified Moving Average (MMA) is one of two indicators that define whether or not a weekly chart profile is positive, neutral or negative. The other is the status of the 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic.

A stock with a positive technical rating is above its five-week MMA with rising or overbought stochastics.

A stock with a negative technical rating is below its five-week MMA with declining or oversold stochastics.

A stock with a neutral technical rating has a profile that is not positive or negative.

The 200-Week Simple Moving Average (SMA) is considered a long-term technical support or resistance and as a "reversion to the mean" over a rolling three to five year horizon. (even Apple declined to its 200-week SMA in June 2013)

The 21-Day Simple Moving Average is a short-term technical support or resistance used by many hedge fund traders to adjust positions. A stock above its 21-day SMA will likely move higher over a rolling three to five day horizon and vice versa.

The 50-Day Simple Moving Average is also a technical support or resistance used by many strategists and commentators in financial TV.

The 200-Day Simple Moving Average is another technical support or resistance and I consider this level as a shorter-term "reversion to the mean" over a rolling six to 12 month horizon. (even Apple tested or crossed its 200-day SMA in nine of the last 10 years)

Value Levels, Pivots and Risky Levels are calculated based upon the last nine weekly closes (W), nine monthly closes (M), nine quarterly closes (Q), nine semiannual closes (S) and nine annual closes (A). I have one column for pivots, which is a magnet for the period shown. The columns to the left of the pivots are first and second value levels. The columns to the right of the pivots are first and second risky levels.

Investors who wish to buy a stock should use a good-until-canceled GTC limit order to buy weakness to a value level. Investors who want to sell a stock should use a GTC limit order to sell strength to a risky level.

At the time of publication the author held no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.

Follow @Suttmeier

This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff

Richard Suttmeier is the chief market strategist at ValuEngine.com.

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