NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- So far this year bonds, gold and crude oil have outperformed the major equity averages. Tensions between Russia and Ukraine have accelerated the momentum of the trends in these markets -- bonds and commodities often rise in response to global uncertainty. The major equity averages have also had upward momentum since early February, but the uncertainties in Ukraine could slow down this momentum.
The consensus in the financial media for 2014 had been to avoid bonds and commodities, and that stocks remain cheap.
So far that has been dead wrong. So how can investors respond to this market, protect themselves and profit?
Today I will present a technical analysis of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT), Comex Gold Futures and Nymex Crude Oil Futures., as well as the major stock and commodity averages. Then I will summarize what may happen to the major equity averages given prolonged tensions related to Ukraine.
Investors can make a more informed investment plan based on these numbers.
A detailed technical analysis chart about these markets follows on page 3. It explains my number-crunching terms and gives an analysis about when to buy or sell.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ($109.03 yesterday vs. $101.17 on Dec. 31, up 7.8% YTD) trades like a stock. Its components are U.S. Treasuries with maturity dates longer than 20 years. This bond ETF is above four out of five key moving averages shown in my "Crunching the Numbers" table. Monday's intraday high for this ETF at $109.18 is in striking distance of its 200-week SMA at $109.50. The weekly chart has been positive since the first week of 2014. Its five-week modified moving average is at $107.04. My quarterly value level at $105.79 began the year as a pivot, and my annual risky levels are $114.99 and $116.12.
Comex Gold ($1351.20 yesterday vs. $1202.30 on Dec. 31, up 12.4% YTD) is also above four out of five key moving averages in my table. Gold is below its 200-week SMA at $1492. The weekly chart is positive but overbought, with the precious metal approaching my monthly and quarterly risky levels at $1373 and $1385. A breakout above these levels makes the 200-week SMA the next upside target.
Nymex Crude Oil ($104.92 yesterday vs. $98.42 on Dec. 31, up 6.6% YTD) is above all five of the key moving averages in my table and has tested my semiannual pivot at $104.97 on Monday, March 3. My annual and semiannual risky levels are at $107.52 and $110.30. The weekly chart is positive but overbought, with the five-week MMA at $100.50. Note that crude oil has been trading back and forth around its 200-week SMA, now at $93.15, since mid-2009.
Here are my profiles for the major equity averages.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
The S&P 500