It's about odds, and Kass knows -- as every other short-seller does -- that when the shoe falls, it has a long way down before hitting bottom. Think of it like a casino and the game of blackjack. Sometimes someone will walk in and, regardless if they hit or stand, it will be the right move. The player goes on a hot streak and increases their bets and is winning the most they have ever won.
The casino doesn't enjoy it, but they don't shut the game down either because they know if the player continues long enough they will win it back. I guess, but don't know because I didn't ask, it's why Kass added to his short position Tuesday.
Again using blackjack as an analogy, when you're dealt 11 and the dealer has a six showing you should always double down.
The reason is simple: The odds favor you winning, and the casino will allow you to increase your bet size. It's a rare example when the player has an edge and can bet based on the edge. You don't always win, and when you lose you lose twice as much as you would have otherwise, but if you play the odds enough times you win more than you lose.
On Tuesday, I jumped on the short bus and posted my Tesla short on Twitter (TWTR).
$TSLA having a great day, up 18.25%. I'm shorting at $258 and higherRobert Weinstein (@RobertWeinstein) February 25, 2014
I made a few dollars and called it good. I think the massive short interest is squeezing the daylights out of the shorts -- and if there is one thing I know about the markets, it's that the last move is often a monumental move. I also know when a trending stock fails to make new highs on good news, the trend is likely to end and reverse. I'll post again on Twitter if I short Wednesday.
Was Tuesday's move the final capitulation of shorts throwing in the towel?
Only time will tell, but I wouldn't want to bet get against Kass as I find out.
At the time of publication, Weinstein had no positions in securities mentioned.
This article represents the opinion of a contributor and not necessarily that of TheStreet or its editorial staff.