NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Earlier today, the monthly Automatic Data Processing jobs report was released, showing private-sector payrolls increased by 175,000 in January, falling short of estimates.
Now we have to wait until Friday to see how the ADP number will match up with Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payrolls number and to see how the market will react.
Watching the release of the jobs report for December and seeing the market move higher made me realize that it seemed as if the market always went higher with the announcement of the official numbers regardless of what those numbers were.
In the last 18 months, there has been a statistically significant likelihood that during the week preceding the report and the day preceding the report that the market would move higher. The following week the market performed no differently whether preceded by the jobs report or not.
As with all statistics, it helps to look beyond the numbers to try to understand possible factors that may have played a role.
One factor may be that the past 18 months contained the beginning of the third and final phase of quantitative easing, the Federal Reserve's bond-purchasing program.
I wasn't excited about being further long in a market in anticipation of a run-up fueled by the jobs report, considering the connection between the Fed's policy announcements and the market's fortunes. Certainly, the past month causes one to rethink a bullish thesis.